The team dynamic for this year’s event is unlike any I can remember. Virtually (or maybe even realistically) every team is dealing with some sort of inconvenience or difficulty. The Spanish team lost Rubén Fernandez and now puts Francisco Garcia on a 450 for the first time. The Dutch team lost Kay de Wolf and brings veteran Glenn Coldenhoff back after his stint in Brazil. The French team has their best but Mathis Valin hasn’t raced in months due to injury. The Belgians also have their ideal roster but their leader, Lucas Coenen, has been dealing with a leg injury for the past few months and hasn’t been riding. The Italians subbed in Alberto Forato for Andrea Bonacorsi just this week, adding more chaos to the mix. The Estonian team is not a name that jumps off the page but they might be the only team in which they haven’t had massive upheaval. Everywhere else you look, uncertainty appears. 

So, what does that all mean for who is favored? The French are the favorites on paper with two of the top MXGP riders (Romain Febvre and Tom Vialle), backed up by one of the best MX2 riders (Valin). That doesn’t ensure victory but if Valin is back to form, they will be tough. Similarly, the Belgians have a strong lineup but Lucas Coenen is a huge question mark. His inability to compete this summer and lack of prep is possibly the biggest point of uncertainty for the entire event. If he’s anywhere near his normal form, they immediately vault near the top of the list. Both Sacha Coenen and Liam Everts are MX2 race winners and put them in immediate contention. 

What about the Spanish team, you ask? They are going to be great, boasting recent SMX World Champ Jorge Prado and current MX2 champ Guillem Farres. The only question is how does Garcia go on the 450? He’s never raced the 450 at this level and that brings questions. If he answers them strongly, they could win, make no mistake about that. The Dutch have been moving pieces around the board, filling in Kay de Wolf’s spot with wily veteran Coldenhoff and putting Roan Van De Moosdijk back on a 250. Of course, Jeffrey Herlings makes all things possible and if he puts a 1-1 on the board, things get interesting very quickly. Simply put, it’s chin scratching at every turn for almost every team. No one is dealing with utter calm going in. That’s what makes it so fascinating. 

As for the Americans, the same theme remains: chaos at every turn abounds. Cooper Webb is the captain but he’s literally never raced this motorcycle before. He’s winging it on a level never seen before. He’s a gamer but this is a brutally difficult task. Levi Kitchen is the most stable entry but having never raced in Europe and a dicey track record on the starts front could prove challenging. If he can’t get off the gate well, the 450’s will make his life very difficult on Sunday. The third spot was up for grabs as late as last weekend as Chance Hymas suffered a wrist injury and put everything in doubt. After a fire drill last Saturday morning, Julien Beaumer stepped up and will ride his Red Bull KTM 450 in the MXGP class. He’s never raced the 450 before but neither had Ryan Dungey in 2009 so I will remain optimistic. It’s more just the challenge ahead that resonates for me when considering Team USA’s chances. I am eyes wide open on how difficult this task is. Nothing about this will be easy and the other teams are all licking their chops to beat the Americans. Godspeed, boys.