Eli Tomac's Retirement Announcement Reaction: Didn’t He Have a Supercross-Only Deal for 2027?

Weege: Yeah, I actually hope that that's what led to it. I said over and over that the crash at Pala especially, but also those supercross ones, dude, every single one of them was rando. Every single one of them was a racing deal, and there's nothing you can tell your wife or family, "I will make sure that does not happen again." Cleveland, he just hit an edge in the whoops. Happens all the time. He got hit wheel-to-wheel with Freddie at Salt Lake. And, dude, he's landing on his footpeg. We know how bad that could have been. And then the Marchbanks thing [at Pala], I mean, nothing you could do to prevent it. Racing incidents. So, yeah, as awesome as it is to see him still competitive and still potentially win races or contend for titles, we all know that's icing on the cake at this point, and it's not going to really change his life. I understand he's competitive and he still wants to win, but at this point you're on house money and, similar point JT is saying, absolutely horrifically tragic if one of these injuries went one inch worse the other direction, which all three could have. And I hope that's what led him to this decision, because I don't want to see it keep freaking happening! No one wants to see that. And whatever he left on the table, racing wise, I don't think it's worth it. That's the downside of this sport. Veterans can keep going in other sports. There are legendary stories of the things [NBA player] Kobe Bryant did to continue playing the last couple of years of his career. Like he built a van that had a medical facility basically in the van, so when he was commuting to games, he could get treatment. And that's what he was doing to limp to the finish line. But Kobe never had to worry about breaking his neck. Here, any huge injury is sad. But you know, it would look even worse where it's like, "Dude, you didn't even have to be out there anymore!"

Matthes: Yeah. When something like that happens, I always think of Blair Morgan, the Canadian legend who got paralyzed in his last race. Last race he was ever going to do, Montreal Supercross, you know, and he was going to hang it up, do some snowcross stuff and literally got paralyzed, you know. So, I do think of that.

Weege: It is worse, yeah. For example, Jo Shimoda got hurt in the off-season. Bad, right? And that could have been terrible. But for Jo, you're like, you're just getting started. This is how you're going to make your living. You've got a lot left on the table and a long career in front of you. You can understand why he would come back. But not when you're on borrowed time, man.

Matthes: So, okay, the crashes are one thing. You guys all make great points for sure. But the results since coming back outdoors. Now he said, “Hey I probably came back too early,” but when he came back, there were no rumblings of him hanging it up. But then he has not been able to get it back. And then the rumblings started around the two-week break after Washougal. From what I heard, I got a text from somebody that said, "Hey, heads up, this is happening." I think I was the first guy to mention it or break it. So, the results seem to have something to do with it. JT, I'll go back to you. We've never seen Eli look as bad as he has since he's come back. So, yes, crashes are absolutely part of it. But also, I think you got to look at these results and how far he was going to have to climb to get back to winning. Because there was no rumor of anything until he really didn't have it when he came back.

JT: Yeah. And there are some that very much believe that this was the most heavily contributing factor. I'm certainly not going to say they're wrong. I think Eli believed or believes deep down that if he went through the off-season again, he could come out swinging again in 2027. But I think that's why he signed the contract. That's why he was willing to sign that supercross-only deal that we know he did sign and then kind of unwound. So, if you know a percentage high—I know you love that—I would say something like 85-15. 85 percent the crashes, and maybe 15 percent the results when he came back. I do think it was a part of it. I do think he was riding around in the back going, "Man, this sucks. I don't want to do it like this. I don't want to battle with people that this is like the biggest moment in their racing career is battling with me." It's not any fun. Honestly, it really doesn't matter what level you're at because I felt this too, just with a much lesser level of competition, right? Like where I thought I should be, I could not do it anymore.

And being much further back than I usually was, it really wasn't any fun. I actually hated every second of it. Eli is just on a much higher plane, but the dynamic is exactly the same where he knows he should be at the front. He wasn't able to be at the front, and he doesn't want to battle for sixth, 10th, 14th. He does not want to do that. So, yeah, I would say 85-15. But I think the risk of injury coupled with your wife is pregnant with your fourth child, I just believe somewhere in there, there were some heavy conversations had about, "Why are we continuing to take so much risk when we've won the game of life and the game of racing?" He won! So, at some point something, whatever you believe in, something is telling you like, "Stop, stop tempting fate here because you've already accomplished everything there is to accomplish."

Matthes: So, Weege, like I mentioned, the results seem to be the kicker. The final cherry. Weege, what do you think?

Weege: Yeah, I do have to acknowledge that other part. So, you were tipped off maybe by insiders. I was tipped off by just sitting next to Stew [James Stewart] every weekend [in the broadcast booth]! Eli came back for Millville and Washougal, and he seemed upbeat, seemed like he was in a positive mood. It did not at all indicate how bad the riding was going to be. So, we just all thought, "All right, it didn't work out. Maybe bike was off at Millville. He'll be better at Washougal." That wasn't any better. "Ah, give him two weeks off. That'll get better." But, dude, Stew just kept saying  this to me over and over, he's like, "I don't like what I'm seeing. I don't like what I'm hearing, even in the interviews." And I'm like, "What do you mean? In the interviews, Eli looks like he's more pumped than ever to get back on the bike." And then Stew just went started explaining how it ended for him. And his point was, "I had no idea it was ending when it was ending. I still showed up to the races thinking I was going to be good, and then I'd be in the race and I'd be like, 'Something's different. Something's wrong.' And then the next week, I'd be like, 'Okay, well, this week it'll be okay.' And then the same thing would happen." I'm not joking with you guys. Basically, after Millville, Stew told me this was going to happen, and then we went to Washougal and that backed it up. He saw a lot of of what he was going through when it ended for him. He's like, "This is exactly how it went for me at the same track." Now, Eli did get better those last couple races. Stew chose not to even race after that.

Matthes: Yeah, I thought Ironman was definitely fine. Like good.

Weege: Yeah. And Budds also. But what Stew told me that was interesting. I'm like, "Yeah, I guess that Pala injury might have really did it." And Stew's like, "Nah, man, I was never worried about getting hurt." He's like, "That doesn't even cross my mind." He just knows there's a difference when basically your whole life you've been fast and all of a sudden, you're like, "I don't get it. I feel like I should be good right now and it's just not working."

Matthes: The only thing that I would push back on that a little bit was Stew was out of shape, right? That's all. I would just push back a little bit on that. Like Stew was not in the shape he needed to be when he retired.

Weege: Yeah. But he felt like there was nothing he could do that would make it better. Like he went back to the team and they're like, "Is it the bike?" He's like, "Trust me, man, it's not the bike. I don't need to be in better shape. None of that is going to help. It's just gone, man. It's just gone." And yeah, it's been better for Eli here over these last few races, but I also had—I'm not going to name him—but I had another Hall of Famer, dude, he called me toward the end of supercross when we were trying to figure this all out! And he's like, "Eli's going to be done." I'm like, "What?" He's like, "Yeah."

Matthes: I remember this! Yep, yep.

Weege: He's like, "You guys are trying to figure out scoop tire, hurt, pressure, Hunter, Roczen, it doesn't matter—he's just done." And I'm like, "That's ridiculous." And he was right! So, I feel like these guys at that level, the guys who have been at the peak of the peak, maybe they got a window into the mindset. Like you said, they know that climb and how far he was going to have to get to get back to where he wanted to be. They seem to know.

Matthes: Okay, the Hall of Famer guy. I know who you're talking about because you told us about it. But I mean, Eli did sign a contract for 2027 supercross. So, like, at that time, he was coming back.

Weege: Yeah, I hear what you're saying, but both this guy and Stew said the same thing. They're like, "You don't know it's ending when it's ending." I'm sure Eli, after Cleveland thought, "Give me two weeks. I'll be back." "Oh, going into round one of motocross, I'll be back." "Okay, Millville. I'll be back." "Okay. Washougal, I'll be back." "It's going to come back at some point." The Hall of Famer guy told me he thought the same thing going into what turned out to be his final season. He thought he was going to keep winning! But he didn't. Only the outsiders can be like, "Trust me, bro, it ain't coming back."

Matthes: Yeah. Listen, I’ll go with JT 85-15. You know crashing, injuries, compounded, and then yeah. And then the results are like, I mean, again, Benny Bloss, he's like, "What am I doing?” Benny the grim reaper?

Weege: We have to acknowledge that. Yeah. I mean, the irony. Benny battles Stew in 2016 and Eli in 2026. [Laughs]

Matthes: Eli did tell us at media days, "I'm not telling you guys when I'm done because I've gone through that before," which he has, you know. We had a press release saying he's racing one last year, right? But this one with three to go, I think it's fair for the sport and the fans can celebrate him, you know, a little bit with three more SMX races to go before he hangs it up. Yeah, it's a blow. Also lets look at the ramifications of this, JT: Eli signs that contract so KTM can't sign Aaron Plessinger. [They have] Lucas Coenen of course Jorge Prado going to be there. AP's jumping, and look, this is no fault of KTM or Eli Tomac or anything else, but this really hurts KTM for the Aaron Plessinger part of things because AP wanted to sign there [again], he gave him two options. He gave him two deals, two options: "I'll do this or this." And they said, "No, we can't." And of course he's taking his talents to Triumph. But, yeah, that kind of hurts KTM, JT.

JT: Yeah, I wonder do they respond with anything. You know, like they're still reasonable guys out there like Barcia. Like there are still guys to fill. I don't know that they will.

Matthes: Sorry to interrupt you, but I guess Ian [Harrison, Red Bull KTM team manager] told Lewis [Phillips], "We're good. We're not filling that spot."

JT: Yeah, and that's what I expect. That's what I expect them to do. But I would also say in the same breath that I don't love going into supercross with Lucas and Prado as your only two 450 guys. I don't. And Weege and I talked about this, which will come out on Thursday, maybe Cooper Webb is the silver lining being on a Husky in '27. Like maybe that gives them some sort of recourse there where the group wins in supercross. But like, if you're expecting Lucas Coenen to do anything in supercross next year, change your outlook, that's not going to be a real thing in my mind. And Prado was fantastic last year, but I don't know that he's going to be battling for the title? This is going to be arguably the weakest lineup Red Bull KTM has had entering a supercross season in a decade, 15 years? I don't know, 20 years? I can't think of a time where they had less of a chance of winning something in supercross than they do in 2027.

Matthes: Weege. We have seen many legends retire, usually it's from an injury and they just can't get it back, or they just get older or whatever. I can't think of another legend, and Eli's in that class, of where it went (away) halfway through the year, right?! Or am I missing somebody?? You know, because it's injury or just age, it's never halfway through the year that I could think of! He was the best rider back in January of this year!

Weege: You know that that is unique. But what I don't know if it's fair to compare, because the difference is that Eli is way older than almost all those comparisons you're making. So, had Ryan Villopoto raced six more years, maybe that is the way it plays out for him also, you know? And I think in the moment, obviously Eli losing it in supercross sucked. We all wanted to see a close championship fight and how cool it would have been for Eli to battle for it or win it or whatever. So, in that moment, we're just drilling down on why he's doing terribly. But I do think when you look back on it, like big, big, big picture, like ten years from now, one of the coolest parts is that he can say that he did get all the way back to the top of the mountain, which none of the other guys basically are able to do. I mean, you look at the Achilles injury. Eli was not the same really in 2024 at all. He was pretty good in 2025. He had that ['25] San Diego race where he beat Jett Lawrence, but where we were like, no doubt, look in the mirror, who's the best rider in the world right now, it's Eli Tomac? I don't know if we were quite there in 2025. The fact is in 2026, in the month of January, maybe February, you were able to say that Eli Tomac was back to being the best supercross rider in the world. I think that's what every one of those guys would have chased and they never got there. So, the point is, even if it was only for six weeks, any athlete at that level would have killed for that six weeks. Just to be the man one more time. So, I almost wonder if now that actually makes this decision a little easier. He can say, "You know what, staying out here three more years post Achilles paid off. My goal was to be the man one more time. And I did that." That's a great accomplishment.

Matthes: Yeah. All of those guys I brought up are not 33 years old. Exactly, Weege.

Weege: Yeah, you can't compare. Right. They might have dropped off that way too, at that age.

Matthes: For sure. In a way, did Birmingham on, did just time catch up? It just, Father time came crashing down? [Laughs] Because we went through the tires, we went through the knee, we went through all of these theories as to why he dropped off!

Weege: Yeah, I don't know. On one of our TV calls recently, we had Sebastian Tortelli on there because he's with the French [SMX video pass] broadcast and he agreed with Stew that the end was near for Tomac. And again, that was shocking to most people on the call. Seb's theory, I mean, we're all just guessing here, but his theory was Eli did want to come back to Yamaha, right? They kind of lowballed him. So, his [Tortelli's] theory was Eli started the year with a new bike that's fresh, and he probably had a little chip on the shoulder to show Yamaha, “You screwed up,” and that was great for a little while, but that doesn't last forever. That was his theory.

Matthes: Yeah. I mean, look. Cooper Webb winning kind of pushed Eli out, right?  Coop won, got a kicker, and his contract was increased because Eli told them he was done. Then he wanted to come back, but they had already planned to budget for Coop and Deegs. So, you know, you can't really blame Star Racing for all of that at that time.

Weege: No. But Eli did tell me at a press day one time this year, I'm like, "Dude, does this prove, you know, you had more left then your other team didn't even want you back?" And he's like, "No, no, I had an offer, but I'm highly motivated to beat them." So, maybe that did give him  that motivation. Maybe, October, November, December, he was fired up. And we know he loved the KTM when he jumped on it. Yeah. So he was good for awhile. Maybe [it] just doesn't last.

Listen to the full Renthal Reaction podcast episode on Tomac's retirement announcement below.