Championship Math – 450 Class

The title situation in the 450 Class is pretty straightforward—Hunter Lawrence leads Jett Lawrence by a single point with one round remaining (they’re the only two still in contention). Winner doesn’t necessarily take all, however, at least not for Jett, because if they split moto wins (which could easily happen) and Jett is the overall winner, Hunter will still hold a single-point lead. If Jett goes 3-1 and Hunter goes 2-2, they’ll find themselves tied for the championship, but Hunter would get the nod because he’s won more motos (Hunter’s won 12, Jett’s won 8). And, of course, if Hunter wins the overall, or at least finishes ahead of Jett at the end of the day, he’ll be the 2026 AMA Pro Motocross Champion. -Aaron Hansel

Championship Math – 250 Class

In the 250 Class Cole Davies and Levi Kitchen are the only riders who haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the title chase, and Davies leads Kitchen by 14 points. This means Kitchen is going to have be perfect, and hope Davies has some bad luck. We’ve seen plenty of chaos this summer, so nothing is off the table, but taking 15 points (Kitchen can’t tie and win because Davies has more moto wins) out of a competitor as strong as Davies is a big ask. If Kitchen wins the first moto and Davies takes second, then Kitchen would have to win the second moto and have Davies finish ninth or worse, which seems pretty unlikely. The number of scenarios to think up is limitless, but the fact is, Davies holds a very strong advantage coming into the finale. -Hansel