Sign of the (Lap) Times: High Point

Sign of the (Lap) Times High Point

June 21, 2017 11:10am

The weekend off between Thunder Valley and High Point was good for the riders as it gave them time to rest and adjust to any mid-season changes they needed to make. It was also good for us because it allowed a couple storylines to marinate, the biggest of them being the battle for control of the 450 Class between Blake Baggett, Eli Tomac, and Marvin Musquin, as all three had gotten an overall win and it looked like El Chupacabra was making a comeback. 

After this weekend it looks like Baggett has put himself in a good spot to potentially take the reigns on the season. He's the first rider to get a second overall win this season and he jumped up in the championship points to lead by eight over Musquin, who is now struggling with a knee injury. 

Let’s dive into the lap data to figure out how these races were won and lost with this week’s Sign of the Lap Times. First, our traditional lap time charts.

450 Class Moto 1

Lap Rank Finish Best Lap On Lap Avg Lap Time Rider
1 1st 1:59.606 4 2:01.266 Blake Baggett
2 2nd 2:00.061 2 2:02.790 Dean Ferris
3 7th 2:00.683 6 2:04.746 Justin Bogle
4 4th 2:00.814 14 2:03.012 Broc Tickle
5 5th 2:00.904 16 2:03.744 Jason Anderson
6 3rd 2:01.228 4 2:03.453 Josh Grant
7 12th 2:01.522 6 2:04.701 Eli Tomac
8 37th 2:01.575 2 2:04.307 Christian Craig
9 6th 2:01.817 5 2:03.931 Cooper Webb
10 9th 2:02.130 7 2:04.570 Dean Wilson

450 Class Moto 2

Lap Rank Finish Best Lap On Lap Avg Lap Time Rider
1 2nd 1:55.071 7 1:59.340 Blake Baggett
2 1st 1:55.659 6 1:58.550 Eli Tomac
3 3rd 1:58.617 7 2:01.266 Jason Anderson
4 4th 1:58.839 3 2:01.652 Broc Tickle
5 7th 1:59.241 3 2:02.522 Dean Wilson
6 5th 1:59.548 3 2:02.234 Cooper Webb
7 8th 1:59.591 7 2:02.891 Cole Seely
8 6th 2:00.123 7 2:02.078 Marvin Musquin
9 11th 2:00.144 2 2:05.270 Josh Grant
10 9th 2:00.677 7 2:03.386 Justin Bogle

250 Class Moto 1

Lap Rank Finish Best Lap On Lap Avg Lap Time Rider
1 1st 1:58.893 7 2:00.976 Zach Osborne
2 3rd 1:59.617 3 2:02.178 Aaron Plessinger
3 2nd 1:59.777 8 2:01.636 Jeremy Martin
4 7th 2:00.299 7 2:03.032 Alex Martin
5 5th 2:01.355 6 2:02.932 Adam Cianciarulo
6 4th 2:01.436 7 2:02.630 Dylan Ferrandis
7 14th 2:01.572 4 2:06.075 Sean Cantrell
8 35th 2:01.686 5 2:05.719 Justin Hill
9 11th 2:01.820 5 2:04.575 Shane McElrath
10 6th 2:01.976 8 2:03.581 Austin Forkner

250 Class Moto 2

Lap Rank Finish Best Lap On Lap Avg Lap Time Rider
1 2nd 1:57.747 4 2:00.777 Zach Osborne
2 5th 1:58.807 4 2:01.813 Alex Martin
3 1st 1:59.049 8 2:00.560 Jeremy Martin
4 6th 1:59.208 5 2:02.958 Austin Forkner
5 4th 1:59.284 5 2:01.516 Dylan Ferrandis
6 3rd 1:59.619 3 2:01.213 Aaron Plessinger
7 7th 2:00.589 3 2:04.252 Joey Savatgy
8 8th 2:01.051 4 2:04.662 RJ Hampshire
9 30th 2:01.235 8 2:02.716 Colt Nichols
10 36th 2:01.329 7 2:02.848 Michael Mosiman

Baggett vs. Tomac

At the post-race press conference we asked Baggett what happened in the second moto as it seemed like he was catching Tomac in the middle of the race, but fell back to 20 seconds behind the lead by the end of the moto. Baggett said: "I was going to make a charge for it and try to make a push for it and catch him [Tomac]. Then it went through my mind that I was coming up on the lappers really quick and you pretty much can’t trust where they’re going to go. So I just called it and sort of decided I was going to just ride it in and get a second and just take that on the day. On the days where I need to go, then send it. But today I felt was enough to just get it done."

I rounded up both of their lap times and calculated the gap between them for each lap. Baggett indeed started catching Tomac once he got into second place on lap six and his times did fall off around lap 13. However, Tomac seemed to find a more consistent pace starting on lap eight and could argue that he was simply managing the race. Take a look at their times below. 

Lap Tomac's Second Moto Times Baggett's  Second Moto Times Tomac's Gap Over Baggett
1 -- -- 6.813
2 01:59.6 01:59.4 6.613
3 01:59.2 02:00.6 8.013
4 01:57.9 01:58.7 8.813
5 01:56.2 01:57.3 9.913
6 01:55.7 01:58.1 12.313
7 01:58.1 01:55.1 9.313
8 01:56.5 01:55.9 8.713
9 01:57.3 01:56.9 8.313
10 01:57.0 01:57.1 8.413
11 01:56.5 01:58.3 10.213
12 01:57.3 01:58.5 11.413
13 01:56.5 02:00.4 15.313
14 01:58.3 02:02.2 19.213
15 01:59.3 02:01.3 21.213
16 02:01.2 02:00.5 20.513
17 02:04.7 02:02.3 18.113
18 02:04.1 02:06.1 20.113

Championship Shuffle

With such a dynamic championship shaping up so far, I figured now would be a good time to take a look at how the points have developed through the first four rounds. 

As you can see, quite a bit of shuffling has gone on in the top 10. Baggett was 22 points down after round one but after his back-to-back wins and inconsistent rides from the other riders, he has worked his way into the lead.

Tomac may have had a rough couple of weekends, but he did get a moto win at High Point and actually closed the gap to the leader in the points by six points. 

Jason Anderson is also starting to get some forward momentum. He left round one in a 35-point hole and sat outside the top 10. He now sits solidly in fourth place and has made up a little ground as he is now 26 points down. We'll see if we get even more shuffling happening in the next four rounds or if this top 10 stabilizes. 

Round 1

Rider Total Points Difference
Tomac 50 --
Musquin 44 -6
Grant 40 -10
Wilson 29 -21
Tickle 28 -22
Baggett 28 -22
Webb 28 -22
Seely 27 -23
Barcia 26 -24
Bogle 24 -26

Round 2

Rider Total Points Difference
Musquin 89 --
Tomac 74 -15
Baggett 63 -26
Grant 60 -29
Wilson 58 -31
Anderson 56 -33
Seely 54 -35
Tickle 53 -36
Bogle 49 -40
Peick 46 -43

Round 3

Rider Total Points Difference
Musquin  127 --
Tomac  110 -17
Baggett 108 -19
Anderson 93 -34
Bogle 86 -41
Wilson 84 -43
Seely 81 -46
Tickle 79 -48
Grant 76 -51
Barcia 69 -58

Round 4

Rider Total Points Difference
Baggett 155 --
Musquin 147 -8
Tomac 144 -11
Anderson 129 -26
Tickle 115 -40
Bogle 112 -43
Wilson 110 -45
Grant 106 -49
Seely 105 -50
Webb 88 -67