The List: Tracing History

The List Tracing History

June 1, 2017 11:05am

We’re two rounds down in a 12 round championship, which means it’s time for everyone to overanalyze, overreact, and overreach on championship title hopes. Our societal instincts are to live and die with every race. To make rash judgments from small sample sizes. It’s what we do best—and it’s awesome. This is what bench racing is, right?

Sometimes, though, we need to step back and look at the larger picture. Holding a lead after two rounds, according to recent history, doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a title. Since 2004, only 53 percent of the time has the leader after two rounds gone on to win the championship in 450MX.

During that same span, the 250s average out the same: 53 percent of the time the 250MX points leader after two rounds has gone on to win the title. So, while Marvin Musquin and Zach Osborne are sitting pretty at the moment, it doesn’t mean they will be hoisting the championship at seasons end.

One thing to note: Osborne holds the second largest lead since 2004 after two rounds. Only James Stewart in 2004 held a larger lead. James went on to win the title. Musquin’s 15-point lead right now in the 450s is actually relatively small historically, as the 450 leader often enjoys an even larger lead than that.

Have a look at our charts below for more. 

450MX

Year Leader After Rd. 2 Points Lead Evenutal Champion Points Lead
2004 Ricky Carmichael  16 Ricky Carmichael  124
2005 Ricky Carmichael  28 Ricky Carmichael  109
2006 Ricky Carmichael  9 Ricky Carmichael  132
2007 Ricky Carmichael  10 Grant Langston 16
2008 James Stewart 20 James Stewart 186
2009 Mike Alessi 18 Chad Reed 93
2010 Chad Reed 11 Ryan Dungey 145
2011 Chad Reed 21 Ryan Villopoto 12
2012 James Stewart 14 Ryan Dungey 127
2013 Ryan Villopoto 12 Ryan Villopoto 56
2014 Ken Roczen 5 Ken Roczen 14
2015 Eli Tomac 19 Ryan Dungey 100
2016 Ken Roczen 2 Ken Roczen 86
2017 Marvin Musquin 15 TBD

250MX

Year Leader After Rd. 2 Points Lead Evenutal Champion Points Lead
2004 James Stewart 25 James Stewart 179
2005 Mike Brown 13 Ivan Tedesco 36
2006 Mike Alessi 8 Ryan Villopoto 76
2007 Ryan Villopoto 8 Ryan Villopoto 19
2008 Ryan Villopoto 9 Ryan Villopoto 72
2009 Ryan Dungey 2 Ryan Dungey 11
2010 Christophe Pourcel 9 Trey Canard 28
2011 Dean Wilson 5 Dean Wilson 66
2012 Blake Baggett 14 Blake Baggett 20
2013 Ken Roczen 6 Eli Tomac 59
2014 Jeremy Martin 12 Jeremy Martin 79
2015 Marvin Musquin 19 Jeremy Martin 12
2016 Alex Martin 2 Cooper Webb 73
2017 Zach Osborne 21 TBD