What a difference a year makes. Last year, the script of the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship read much differently after two races. Coming into the series, it seemed that the dynamic was similar to a year ago but things have been anything but the same.
Last year, the three contenders consisting of Ryan Dungey, Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen were coming off of successful supercross seasons, where all three had won races and shown speed. One variable was Ken Roczen’s back stress fracture. He was the big question mark as we entered Hangtown and as we saw, it severely impeded his level of performance. Eli Tomac and Ryan Dungey were ready to roll, however. Tomac, in particular, was the breakout story of the early rounds. He racked up moto win after moto win and put huge margins into his rivals. Dungey wasn’t able to match Tomac but he was able to rack up solid points just behind him and solidify his spot as the summer moved on. As we all know by now, Tomac’s dominance would be cut short by a vicious crash in Colorado, coincidentally the site of this weekend’s event. Dungey would take command after the fall of Eli, putting together wins while Roczen struggled to find his pace. Roczen was unhappy with his performances and also felt the motorcycle needed to take a step forward. Not only was he getting beat by rival Dungey, he was also being displaced by a resurgent Justin Barcia. In the second half of the season, Roczen found himself fighting to stay on the podium, let alone fight for overall wins. It was certainly not the summer Roczen had hoped for, and certainly not what Tomac had in mind, either. For Dungey and Barcia, these were happy days. They were taking turns bringing home wins, surely leaving smiles on their teams’ faces and as we know, everything is good when you’re winning. That was then.
This summer, the storylines entering Hangtown were eerily similar to 2015. Dungey once again won Monster Energy Supercross with points to spare. Both Roczen and Tomac were ramping up towards the summer hoping to turn the tide on Dungey. Even more incredulously, there was a concern with Ken Roczen’s back in the week of the event leaving Kenny in a bit of doubt. But the biggest question was how Tomac would perform with his new motorcycle and team compared to the white-hot start to his 2015 outdoor season. Everyone assumed he would come in as the favorite to pick up where he left off before that horrific crash in Lakewood. For Dungey, it was really just business as usual. He was the defending champ and had just wrapped another supercross title. Sure, there are]always questions and concerns when starting up a new championship but he had the least variation to contend with. He looked stable and ready to vigorously defend this title. The table was all set, just like a year ago, for a showdown all summer long.
After two races, some things have changed but some things have stayed the same. Dungey really looks to be in the same place he was a year ago. He has been consistently the second best rider in the first four motos. The big change is that instead of Tomac showing Ryan the fast way around, Roczen has been the one to do it. Kenny has taken off with the momentum, eerily reminiscent of his 2014 campaign. Dungey had every chance to beat Kenny straight up so far but simply hasn’t had the pace. Kenny seemingly passed Ryan at will and had little trouble putting time into the defending champ. Those two gapped the field and has left everyone wondering about Tomac—and even more troubling for him, he’s had a tough time fighting for that last podium spot against Jason Anderson and Blake Baggett. For a rider who deservedly is regarded as one of the most fit, he looks to be worn down at the end of the motos. In this sport, anything can and usually does happen but seeing Eli Tomac struggling to maintain his pace at the end of a moto is not something I ever expected. Strange days indeed.
So where do we go from here? For Roczen, he is on cloud nine. His confidence hasn’t been higher since 2014. He knows he is the best rider right now. The scary part is that Dungey might be wondering if Kenny is right! Confidence is such a fleeting yet crucial component of winning. Kenny has stolen that away from Eli and Ryan. When they line up in Colorado, Kenny will feel he is the best and “supposed” to win. How Eli and Ryan respond to that is more important than a chassis setting or how many motos they did that week. There is a constant war for mental supremacy raging each and every week. It’s a silent, invisible war but the intensity of it can’t be overstated. Every timed qualifying session, every moto win, every decisive pass—they are all weapons in the confidence war. The look on Ken Roczen’s face in the post race interviews spoke more than his words ever could. For Dungey, he will be quietly working to perfect his game and Aldon Baker will be in his corner reassuring him of why he has won three consecutive titles. Surely he will remind him of how things looked leaving Glen Helen a year ago and how things looked leaving Colorado. He will also remind him that even though things haven’t gone to plan thus far, they are only two points out of the lead. These championships are a marathon and premature conclusions are often foolishly made. Ryan will be there for all 24 motos, just as he was last season. Kenny may be smiling now but I would be willing to bet that Aldon and Ryan feel that they will have the last laugh.
Eli is the one I have the most questions about. He hasn’t looked like the Eli of 2015 for more than a lap. His qualifying sessions give glimpses of the level he is capable of, but when the gate drops, he isn’t the same dominating force he was. He doesn’t seem to have the aggression or intensity of a year ago and I think that comes down to confidence in his settings. When you are absolutely sure of how your bike will react in any situation, it breeds the confidence to push the envelope. That confidence allows you to know what your bike will do before you even approach a section. There are no surprises or uncertainties. That’s a very hard place to get to. He was there a year ago for a few weeks and as we move forward, it will be interesting to see if he can rekindle that magic. If he can, this title fight will explode into a three way slugfest. As a fan, I can only hope and impatiently wait to see what Thunder Valley has in store for us.