Bench Racing Ammo: Rookie Winners
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 | 9:35 AM
MOTOREX is used by factory teams worldwide, by independent pros and by top amateurs who demand the best performance from their race machines. The complete MOTOREX line includes a broad range of synthetic engine oils, lubricants, aerosol sprays, cleaners and care products. MOTOREX is available at dealerships nationwide.
Tweet
Advertisement | Advertise with Us
Share
Comment
Email
PrintThe results from the Monster Energy Cup sure make it obvious that Justin Barcia and Eli Tomac can contend for wins in the big class of Monster Energy Supercross (although Tomac, much to his chagrin, will probably have to wait until 2014 to prove it). But there's an additional stat that may help back up each rider's chances of success in the big division.
Let's take a look at the last five years of Monster Energy Supercross. In the Supercross Class, ten different riders have won races. Of those ten, five of the winners had also won races during their first-ever professional season in Supercross Lites. In fact, those five riders won pretty often:
James Stewart (won 4 his rookie Lites year)
Ryan Dungey (won 4 his rookie Lites year)
Trey Canard (won 4 his rookie Lites year)
Chad Reed (won 6 his rookie Lites year)
Ryan Villopoto (won 1 his rookie year, and also the 250 MX title)
If the MEC is any indication, Barcia could challenge for wins right away in the SX Class.
Simon Cudby photo
85 supercross races have been run in the last five years, and this pack has combined to win 73 of them. That's 85 percent of the available wins.
The other five winners in the last five years did not win races in their rookie SX Lites seasons:
Kevin Windham
Davi Millsaps
Josh Hill
Josh Grant
Andrew Short
But Windham, Millsaps and Grant just missed, as each won multiple races in their sophomore seasons (Millsaps won 3, Windham won 5 and a title, Grant won 3). Short won one race in his second full supercross season. Only Josh Hill didn't succeed in the Lites Class.
What does this have to do with Barcia and Tomac? They're both in the elusive "winning races in their rookie year" class. In fact, they both won two races in their first Lites season. Obviously, if you pick up the SX game so quickly that you get a win within your first few tries, you've got serious talent. Such feats don't happen often.
Now let's flip this the other way. How many riders have won Lites races in their first season? We will look at the last ten seasons. We've already listed seven (Stewart, Dungey, Canada, Reed, Villopoto, Barcia and Tomac). Here are the others:
Christophe Pourcel
Austin Stroupe
Blake Baggett
Ken Roczen
Tomac showed what lies ahead with his win in the third main.
Simon Cudby photo
It's too early to tell how things will turn out for Baggett and Roczen, since they're still in the Lites class. That leaves us only the sordid tales of Stroupe and Pourcel as Lites rookie winners to not succeed in the 450 Class. The mercurial Pourcel, despite two Lites East titles, has never even so much as raced a 450 SX race in the U.S. And Stroupe has made a few rounds here and there, but his career has flamed out, at least for the moment.
Barcia's already ahead of that with his Monster Energy Cup win, and Tomac's main event triumph proves he's no slouch. In other words, the stats prove what we already know: these boys are set to be threats.
Share this article:
Did you like this article?
Check out BAD BOY CLUB
in our Latest issue of Racer X available now.
One of Europe’s fastest young racers, 18-year-old Dutch Red Bull KTM rider Jeffrey Herlings talks about his life, his career ... and his occasional outbursts. Page 160.
Look for the verified symbol 
Impulse Studios
IF, Geico decides to allow Tomac to move up to the class that fits his stature, we could see a record number of wins by "rookies". Barcia and Tomac both showed the speed necessary stand on top of the box, throw a very fast Wilson into the mix and this might be the best "rookie class" we have seen in quite awhile. By the time the gate drops on the 2013 Supercross Series, anticipation will be at an all time high, with such an influx of new talent, the return of 2012 injured riders, the gate will have more talent behind it than ever. IF, they can all stay healthy, we will be treated to a truly SUPER Supercross Season!!!! ..... Come on January!!!
Eli sounds like he'd move up in a heartbeat, but I'd sure think that he would want a few titles in the Lites class first. Anyways, there's no doubt that these guys will be competitive, their lap times on the 250's would have put them on the podium with the big boys in most events!
Knobbywan_Kawnobi ... In college sports there is a reference that fits Eli, "one and done". I'm thinking, Sly Eli would like a few titles in the Premier class!!!
I really hope they let Eli run the 450!!
MC had 10 wins his rookie season - that "record" will not be beat any time soon by Barcia Tomac or other-wise - BECAUSE there is so much talent on the gate...as much as I like the both of them...Tomacs style on the bike more - Barcia's personality more...mind you Barcia was wayy forward and low on the bike saturday night. A more aggressive posture than how he rode the 250 even...it looked good and worked well, obviously!
, how dare them guys! What makes them think they have the right to move up and start winning races didn't they read the rule book even if you are faster you must yield right of way to the veterans
Barcia wasn't exactly dominant on the 250.......looks better on the 450 though. Perhaps the extra weight and HP's is exactly what he needed to smooth things out a bit?
I kind of think it may be the same situation for Wilson......he's tall and lanky and just seemed to be really over-riding the 250.....he may be better on the big bike also.
2012 is going to be really interesting and agressive......the big boys better tighten up the chin strap and get ready for some serious heat.....
Too bad we have to wait over two months to get the show started.
What's the over/under on number of posts before the "Dungey will get a lot of 5ths" predictions start coming in? Just like they did last year.
@MXBob, good point. Though I like Barcia and Tomac and have been a Honda guy since the age of 5, neither of these two have made it through a grueling 17-race 450 season. I think they will find winning in the 450 class much harder than the Lites class. Just ask Weimer, Canard, Tickle, Pourcel, Millsaps, Townley, Tedesco, Lawrence and Jesseman (among others) how many 450 Titles they won after securing Lite SX crowns? The answer is zero. Before we crown Tomac and Barcia as Gods of the 450 SX class, let’s see them go 17 races against RV, RD, CR, and JS.
@Ripdown
Barcia was very dominant on the 250 in SX. He won almost all the races! Are you thinking of outdoors?
Does anyone know Stroupe's status? Is he still injured or can't get a ride, $$$ or what?
barcia is gonna prove a lot of people wrong, Its his attitude that everyone hates is what is gonna make him successful in the 450 class. The kid hates to lose all those names mentioned they all ride like pussies most of the time barcia is not afraid to get in there and mix it up with these guys. If you notice all those names mentioned above every once in a while they have that flash of brilliance were they start out up fron than the big dogs come and once they start racing them hard they back off and let them go. This right here is what seperates the men tfrom the boys barcia will not back down until he realizes its no hope and better to just take second as you seen in the outdoors with tomac and bagget but he didnt just pull over and let them by and once they got by he tried to get it back but would eventually let them go if they had him covered that day but this was outdoors
All those guys should be ashamed of themselves for this past outdoor season, they were all out there trail riding collecting a check I cannot believe more guys did not step up and fill the void after stewart was gone it was a dungey and alessi show. Where was everyone else at?
and Im usually a critic of dungey but I will say I was impressed with him this past weekend I did not think he would race those guys that hard, even though he could. A perfect example is back to the race were I think it was weimer who put dungey over the berm and dungey got pissed and came back and won the race. IF dungey raced like that all the time he would not get the hate he does. he was not gonna win that race till he got till weimer lit a fire under his ass
because dungey is simply put boring we know who would of won outdoors if not for james badluck he will always be content with 2nd or 3rd unlike barcia tomac or stewart dungeys podium speech is always political always says same damn thing no inthusiasm in his riding style he trys to be mr nice guy there no nice guys in motocross just because rv said barcia has no respect for other riders is not going keep barcia from from sticking a wheel in to force a pass its racing its going to get dirty.
js is laying low expect him to come out swinging were my dogs at
Did you actually read what I wrote? I was making fun of the RD will be 5th guys. They said the same thing last year. Until Phoenix anyway.