85 supercross races have been run in the last five years, and this pack has combined to win 73 of them. That's 85 percent of the available wins.
The other five winners in the last five years did not win races in their rookie SX Lites seasons:
But Windham, Millsaps and Grant just missed, as each won multiple races in their sophomore seasons (Millsaps won 3, Windham won 5 and a title, Grant won 3). Short won one race in his second full supercross season. Only Josh Hill didn't succeed in the Lites Class.
What does this have to do with Barcia and Tomac? They're both in the elusive "winning races in their rookie year" class. In fact, they both won two races in their first Lites season. Obviously, if you pick up the SX game so quickly that you get a win within your first few tries, you've got serious talent. Such feats don't happen often.
Now let's flip this the other way. How many riders have won Lites races in their first season? We will look at the last ten seasons. We've already listed seven (Stewart, Dungey, Canada, Reed, Villopoto, Barcia and Tomac). Here are the others:
It's too early to tell how things will turn out for Baggett and Roczen, since they're still in the Lites class. That leaves us only the sordid tales of Stroupe and Pourcel as Lites rookie winners to not succeed in the 450 Class. The mercurial Pourcel, despite two Lites East titles, has never even so much as raced a 450 SX race in the U.S. And Stroupe has made a few rounds here and there, but his career has flamed out, at least for the moment.
Barcia's already ahead of that with his Monster Energy Cup win, and Tomac's main event triumph proves he's no slouch. In other words, the stats prove what we already know: these boys are set to be threats.