by Aaron Hansel
A Tale of Two Seasons
Thursday, September 6, 2012 | 9:45 AM
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With the 450 National Championship already wrapped by Red Bull KTM’s Ryan Dungey, the focus of this weekend’s Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship Finale at The Red Bull Elsinore National is the heated battle in the 250 Class. Blake Baggett holds a 14-point lead, but Eli Tomac, has been riding with the kind of intensity and unbridled aggression that sends spectators to the dentist to have their gaping jaws unlocked. Sound familiar? In the first part of the season, Blake Baggett logged those types of rides, and that, combined with new-found consistency, is what got him into the points lead in the first place.
But in the second half of this year, Baggett has not been the same, a scenario not unlike the second half of his 2011 season. To get some perspective, let’s dig into some stats.
But in the second half of this year, Baggett has not been the same, a scenario not unlike the second half of his 2011 season. To get some perspective, let’s dig into some stats.
| Baggett 2011 | Rounds 1-6 | Rounds 7-11 | ||||
| Avg. moto finish | 3.83 | 4.3 | ||||
| Points scored | 244 | 183 | ||||
| Avg. points per moto | 20.33 | 18.3 | ||||
| Overall wins | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Moto wins | 7 | 1 | ||||
| Points deficit after six rounds: | 14 | |||||
| Points Deficit coming into the final round: | 61 | |||||
| Baggett 2012 | Rounds 1-6 | Rounds 7-11 | ||||
| Avg. moto finish | 1.92 | 3.2 | ||||
| Points scored | 272 (6 races) |
200 (5 races) |
||||
| Avg. points per moto | 22.67 | 20 | ||||
| Overall wins | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Moto wins | 6 | 3 | ||||
| Points lead after six rounds: | Led by |
19 |
||||
| Points lead coming into the final round: | Leads by 14 | |||||
| Tomac 2012 | Rounds 1-6 | Rounds 7-11 | ||||
| Avg. moto finish | 3.5 | 2.2 | ||||
| Points scored | 236 (6 races) |
222 (5 races) |
||||
| Avg. points per moto | 19.67 | 22.2 | ||||
| Overall wins | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Moto wins | 3 | 5 | ||||
| Points deficit after six rounds: | 36 | |||||
| Points deficit coming into the final round: | 14 | |||||
Baggett's average moto finish has risen from 1.9 to 3.2 in the second half of this season.
Cudby photo
For Baggett, the obvious difference between 2011 and 2012 is that he’s held the red plate all season long following Hangtown. Last year, even though he was dominating races, inconsistency on his off days had Dean Wilson leading the points, despite not winning an overall until the ninth round. While Baggett hasn’t been killing the competition in the last few weeks, the improvements he’s made this year in consistency, in both the first and second halves of the season, are undeniable. And surely, holding that points lead late has probably changed his strategy from all-out to points protection.
The only problem for Baggett is that Tomac, who has nothing to lose, is having a fantastic second half. Check out the average points per moto and average moto finish categories. Tomac’s first half bears almost identical numbers to Baggett’s second half, and Tomac’s second half is nearly the same as Baggett’s outstanding first half!
For even more insight, let’s take a look at some stats from the 2010 and 2011 championship winners.
| Canard 2010 | Rounds 1-6 | Rounds 7-11 | |||||
| Avg. moto finish | 5.25 | 2 | |||||
| Points scored | 205 (6 rounds) |
231 (5 rounds) |
|||||
| Avg. points per moto | 17.08 | 23.1 | |||||
| Overall wins | 1 | 4 | |||||
| Moto wins | 1 | 7 | |||||
| Points deficit after six rounds: | 55 | ||||||
| Points deficit coming into the final round: | 7 | ||||||
| Wilson 2011 | Rounds 1-6 | Rounds 7-11 | |||||
| Avg. moto finish | 2.5 | 1.8 | |||||
| Points scored | 258 (6 rounds) |
23 (5 rounds) |
|||||
| Avg. points per moto | 21.5 | 23 | |||||
| Overall wins | 0 | 2 | |||||
| Moto wins | 3 | 6 | |||||
| Points lead after six rounds: | Led by |
14 |
|||||
| Points lead coming into the final round: | Led by |
52 |
|||||
Tomac has dropped his average finish from 3.5 to 2.2.
Cudby photo
In 2010, Canard was able to overcome a 55-point deficit to win the title, although he did have a little help when Christophe Pourcel crashed out in the first moto at the final race of the year at The Pala National. But you can see a massive difference in Canard's riding from the first half and the second, which is what got him into contention in the first place.
Last year, Wilson rode consistently well the whole year, and when the second half came, he upshifted, had his lightning greased and put the championship on ice with one round to spare. And the stats above don't even reflect him going 1-1 again at last year's finale.
As you can see, the rider who has surged in the second half of the season is the rider who has taken home the championship for the last two years. Will Baggett break this emerging trend, or will GEICO Powersports Honda make 2012 a year completely void of championships for Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki?
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Is it too late to put Tomac on the des Nations team?
I think Baggett is just riding smart. He feels the pressure a bit but 14 points is pretty big unless he crashes bad or breaks the bike. I like his chances but expect Tomac to win the race.
I agree with BillC, Blake is managing this championship..his consistent top 5's the second half of the season shows maturity. Theres no urgency to dominate each moto and he knows this. Eli's stepped it up for sure, which is definatly on Blake's mind, however, he knows that even at half speed he can keep it inside the top 5, SAFELY. If everyone gets through the first turn clean I expect Blake to cruise to the title instead of trying to prove a point (which he already has the first hal of the season)
@BillC
I think so to but he can't go 4-4 again or Tomac wins the tie. And with how fast the top 4 are its going to be very tough to ride smart and still finish 3-3. All I know is I am leaving for Elsinore tonight and I can't wait to see the final 250 motos!
I think it was too early when Baggett starting managing the championship. No matter the points lead its not enough until it is clinched. Villopoto didn't back off until the final moto at Pala because he knew anything could happen.
I think BillC's got it right. Mitch Payton didn't collect all that hardware by being foolish. Baggett remembered the 2011 season and rode well early on to grab the red plate and hold onto it throughout the season. Baggett will be back on his home turf, with everything on the line and, barring a disaster, will win the championship.
Tomac wins the battle ! Baggett wins the war !
Thanks for the Canard stats. Andy.For some reason Tomac's second half of the season has reminded me of Canards 2010 season.Lt looks like Tomac's firt half was quite a bit better than Canard's.Baggett may be riding smart but I personally think he might be chocking a bit.We will see this weekend!
Most people are a bit presumptuous giving Tomac a double win this weekend. Lets face it he is not the best starter in the world and everyone is going to be fast on this track. If Blake needs to win then you can bet he will and anyone that thinks he will fold under the pressure is a bit uninformed. Mitch does not hire riders that cannot perform to his expectations, and that is to win.
Sorry about that Aaron.For some reason I thought I was reading RevUp. Great job and thanks again for putting Canard's 2010 stat.in.I've been wanting to campare his stats but I have been to lazy to do it myself.
There is a huge advantage in riding to win, versus not to lose. I believe it will come down to the final moto, but who will be champion is impossible to predict. It is a shame that the track will favor the start with little opportunity to close a gap late.
On twitter I like Chad Reeds dual tale pipes whats up below # 22
@ Claxton, didn't Mitch just hire Martin Davalos? Just kidding bud, I had to go there.
The spectre of team tactics looms large and there will be a lot of calculators out this weekend at Elsi.
Carlsbad thought the same thing. Davalos? Tough to question mitch but that is a flyer.Have a funny feeling were gonna see someone else on that bike by the end of the year. Also could somebody find a spot for filthy phil. He can haul @ss. Watched alot of guys under semi tents getting smoked by him and Kiniry the last few rounds
What a Sudoku puzzle. Drop the gate and lets forget about standard deviations and statistical outliers, although a great article for a slow racing-news week. 14 points - this baby is basically over barring a mechanical or injury. I would bet that Mitch himself is going over Blake's bike after hours with a dial indicator and a micrometer, and Larocco is losing what hair he has left sweating over his machines late into the evening.
A huge shout out for the Geico/Factory Connection guys mixing it up with the previously omnipotent, but now "just" the powerhouse Pro Circuit team. Your rivalry is carrying the sport forward on its back! What a group of world class professionals gettin-r-done on the biggest stage in the world. Top Marks to everyone in your organizations!