10 Things to Watch: Thunder Valley
Friday, June 1, 2012 | 12:30 PM
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PrintBy: Aaron Hansel and Chase Stallo
Tomac Attack
After watching the dominating way in which Eli Tomac handled the competition at Freestone, a track that has been his nemesis in the past, it’s difficult to believe that it’s been two years since his last outdoor win, but it has. By going 1-1 in Texas, Tomac logged his first National victory since Hangtown of 2010. The standout performance will no doubt serve as a confidence booster for Tomac, and now that the series is headed to Thunder Valley, Tomac’s home state race, the rest of the 250 field could be in for yet another thrashing this weekend.
Don’t Call it a Comeback. Yet.
Since Nico Izzi has yet to finish a race without crashing in at least one of his motos, we can’t exactly say he’s gearing up to battle for wins or podiums just yet. However, there is no denying that Izzi is finally starting to give us glimpses of the kind of rider we thought he’d be when he came out of the amateur ranks a few years ago. At Freestone, Izzi briefly led the first moto before getting passed by James Stewart and Ryan Dungey, who simply put, were riding at another level. Izzi then held down third place for ten laps before eventually finishing in a very respectable fourth place behind Factory Kawasaki rider Jake Weimer. In the second moto, Izzi was putting in another great ride in fourth place, until he tangled with a hay bale. Will Izzi keep it on two wheels in Colorado and put the Star/Valli Rockstar Yamaha in the top five?
Can Izzi make a run at a top five at Thunder Valley?
Simon Cudby photo
Underwhelming Performance
Justin Brayton is turning heads this season, but not in the way he’d like. While Brayton wasn’t at the top of the championship radar coming into the 2012 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship, he was certainly expected to finish better than nineteenth and thirteenth at Hangtown and Freestone, respectively. We’ve seen Brayton ride much better than this in the past, so his abilities aren’t in question. The question is, will Brayton figure things out and right the ship this weekend at Thunder Valley?
Mile High Mayhem
At around 6000 feet of elevation, Thunder Valley is easily higher than any other stop on the circuit. The majority of racers aren’t acclimated to this type of elevation, and going hard for 30+2 in the thin air will no doubt prove to be quite a challenge for many of them. Further complicating matters is the fact that the altitude robs a significant amount of power from the bikes, which forces riders to adapt to an unfamiliar power delivery while simultaneously dealing with the effects the altitude has on their bodies. Perhaps there is something to the remarkable streak set forth by Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki, the team that has won every single 250 race here since Thunder Valley started hosting a National in 2005. Maybe Team PC has a secret for the altitude? And, in general, who will best deal with Thunder Valley's unique challenges and emerge victorious?
The Roc Show
No, we’re not talking about catching a concert at Colorado’s nearby stunning Red Rocks Amphitheatre, we’re talking about Ken Roczen, who despite putting in some great rides so far, has yet to score a moto win. Unfamiliarity with the tracks certainly plays a roll in Roczen’s results, but that won’t be as big of a factor this weekend. Roczen raced at Thunder Valley when the MXoN took place there in 2010, and he did quite well, taking sixth in the MX1+MX2 race, and third in the MX2+Open race—by far the best of any MX2 (250cc) pilot at the event. Will Roczen use his past experience at Thunder Valley to take the first win of his National career?
Justin Brayton looks to rebound at Thunder Valley after a rough start to the begin the Nationals.
Simon Cudby photo
WMXing It Up
Lots of eyes were on Australian upstart Meghan Rutledge in Texas, after she won a moto at Hangtown. Could she consistently mix it up with usual favorites Ashley Fiolek and Jessica Patterson? Well, she rode well at Freestone, battling with both as well as Tarah Gieger, but ultimately Patterson and Fiolek went back to their old 1-2/2-1 type of moto results. Mad Meg will try again this weekend.
It’s Been a While
For DNA/JWR Kawasaki’s Josh Grant the return of the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championships to the thin, glorified air of the Rocky Mountains and Thunder Valley Raceway will mark a homecoming, of sorts. While Injuries have beset Grant the past two seasons, the California native seems to be building towards his old form after a fifth overall at Freestone. With the series heading back to the site of his last moto win in 2010, can Grant rekindle the flame in the thin mountain air?
Guns and Roses
Missing all of the 2011 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship after undergoing surgery to repair injuries to both shoulders, Rockstar Energy Racing Suzuki’s Blake Wharton is beginning to round into form after a rocky opening moto at Hangtown. Since his 16th in the opening moto Wharton has strung together three consecutive top-six finishes, including a third after leading much of the second moto at Freestone. Will it be a Paradise City for Wharton at Thunder Valley or will his streak Live and Let Die?
Nelson looks to continue his hot start to the season at Thunder Valley.
Simon Cudby photo
Full Nelson
Derailed by injuries Troy Lee Designs made a call to the bullpen, bringing up amateur phenom Jessy Nelson just days before the 2012 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross season opener at Hangtown. After quietly finishing 16th overall in his pro debut Nelson emerged from the shadows at Freestone. Now with the spotlight directly on his shoulders can Nelson continue his torrid start to his professional career at Thunder Valley?
Going Green
With reigning champion Ryan Villopoto sidelined for the season with a torn ACL and his replacement, Tyla Rattray, situated firmly beside him on the injury list the weight of Monster Energy Kawasaki sits squarely on the shoulders of Jake Weimer. Staring the challenge head on at Freestone, Weimer collected his first career outdoor podium with a third in moto one. A first turn crash in moto two would halt his chances at an overall podium, but Weimer dug deep to charge back to sixth. Consistency plagued Weimer during supercross, but he can erase those bad memories with another podium performance at Thunder Valley.
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I predict the Pro Circus win streak at Thunder Valley is going to end this weekend.
PC win streak? Stuck in 2011 Nealio? I'd like to see Team Kawi give Grant a chance to ride RV's bike. Grant will score a podium eventually this year. He's turning into his old form no doubt.
Roczen??? He will be lucky to get third.
Claxton, u have no idea what you're talking about. Just wait
Hot Sauce! Hot Sauce! Hot Sauce!
IT could happen.
@kenniballs,, lets hope Claxton was kidding...
I think Tomac, Roczen, and Bagget are going to have a battle for the ages all day. Now is certainly the time for Dungey, we know he's very strong here, it's time to close up the points a bit. Gonna be some epic racing, can't wait. A live second moto is nice, except so far the "coverage" has been absolutely horrid. "Don't worry about the two fighting for the lead less than a second apart, let's check in with 14th place riding all alone and then get to our seventh commercial break." Hopefully this will vastly improve in the very near future.
@siouxchamp-Nealio is referring to the fact that Kawi hasn't lost at Thunder valley since the tour has been going there.
450's - Starts Starts Starts..... Unless JS7 has been holding back a little bit, which in my opinion he seems to be doing just enough to stay up front, the start will play a crucial role....that up hill start last year was dominated by the Honda's if I recall.....So I look to see Shorty pull one of his ritualistic holeshots.....If Stew and Dunge are top 5 in the start....I see them seperating themselves again like we have seen thus far for the most part.....A dungey holeshot with a James in 5th or perhaps further back place start would be insteresting....but as we have seen, James got some 4th and 5th place starts and was in the lead 4 turns later....
Starts Starts Starts..... Baggett and Tomac are the equivlant of Stew and Dunge as far as top dawgs go...Baggett gets THE WORST starts it seems, so hopeing he, Tomac and I would like to see IT9 in the mix since Thunder holds his best resutls.....good luck....and good races....oh, and good BEER!!!!!
@KilloMoto--with the run Barcia made last week, after getting knocked down at the start and came back to 5th. Doint count him out. Yes I am a fan, but he was flying last week. He can win if he gets up front.. But I see Tomac winning this weekend.
450's: Will round three be a continuation of Stewart and Dungey playing their amazing version of follow the leader? Can Alessi continue his new found consistancy and stay on the box? When will we see the real Metcalf ? Is Honda's best chance for a podium in the 450 class riding for L&MC;? Will the Altitude affect the bikes or riders more?
250: Is Eli ready to rule the class? Can Baggett get a start? Can one of the Euro Duo finally get a win? Why does Barcia look better on a 450? Can Wharton build on last week?
JS will fade in the altitude he is not in shape.......... It's true i read it on the internet!!!
@mofo - Yeah, Barcia could be there and he had equivlant speed last week to run with the "BB" (yes thats better than elchupacabra) and Eli......he looks better this year than last for sure...Last year I think he has similar finishes the first couple rounds, then dropped of the front pack like a rock.....so we'll see.....its now or never for Bam Bam if he wants the 250 outdoor title....he came closer to winning it his rookie year than the past 2 years...so we'll see.....I'd like to see BB take it....
Although I hope to be mistaken, the 450s appear to be over.
However, the 250s have been very entertaining this year ....
VooDoo...It's far from over!! One bad start of crash from JS and RD has the points lead. Don't right off RD yet!!!
Evidently souixchamp didn't read the article.
Mr-Mx .... Good choices but I would make a couple changes:
250 cc class
1. Blake Baggett
2. Justin Barcia
3. Eli Tomac
4. Ken Roczen
5. Ivan Tedesco
450 cc class
1. Ryan Dungey 2-1
2. James Stewart 1-2
3. Andrew Short
4. Jake Weimer
5. Nico Izzi
I think that Barcia is going to make it happen this week. I know I am going out on a limb with IT, but he is my sentimental choice.
I also think that Andrew Short is going to put it together in his back yard.
@yzfsean,, dont forget, thats Tomac's backyard also..
I know Tomac is from Colorado, I will be surprized if Barcia does not beat him this weekend and I think Baggett is going to go on a tear.
who ever gets 3rd in the 450's will be 1 min behind!!! LOL crazy how far back 3rd has been.
I think Slash will be doing some Mr. Brownstone this weekend.
Well, just to join the guessing game..
450: Stewart, Dungey, Alessi, Metcalf, Short..Until Dungey shows he can pass James got to go with the 7.
250: Tomac, Roczen,Baggett,Barcia,Wharton...A confident Tomac gets on a roll..
Last week, we joked about Nelson's prosthetic(?) thumb actually being a robotic performance enhancing addition......how can you not like this guy's story?
@ warrior462: agree on the coverage, scheduling too......
@ siouxchamp: Grant HAS to be next in line for the Factory KX 450F.....we'll see how much pull Wardy still has at Kawi.
@ BD25: yes to #4. Like Grant (with Kawi), Shorty is an easy pick for a spare works bike.......if he's not already on one.
Factory Connection has done something fantastic this year in pulling away from the Pro Circuit sphere of influence and simultaneously having immediate (positive)results. I don't think that can be stressed enough. This is the first year in a while that I've thought PC's competition was on equal footing.......KTM too.
Weimer was plagued by consistency? That's funny! Oh, the perils of deadlines...
@Mr-Mx and yzfsean: Where is Wharton on your lists? He is an excellent rider, but everyone counts him out! I hope he takes it all! He certainly has the capability and speed to do it! Go, Blake!
@ BillC
OK .... As of now, unforeseen circumstances seem to be Dungey's only chance against Stewy.
450's- Dungey, Stewart, Short, Alessi, Izzi
250's - Tomac, Bagget, Barcia, Roczen, Hahn
on a track with more supercross style obstacles...i gotta lean towards james, uphill start...dungey will be top 10, 7 will be out front with 29...
just a guess...
top 10 off the start i mean for dungey...by finish he will have closed in on 7...
I think if we have a mud race Weimer will win the overall. Obviously things will have to go his way and mud races aren't all that common but it is an equalizer, plus he won the Overall at Budds Creek in 2009, obviously that's a 250f, but these are my thoughts.
@ Sarah65... Wharton would have been my next pick, but like I said IT is a sentimental choice.
Mr-Mx, It's all good, enjoy the race.
Roczen 'lucky to get third'?!? I doubt that!
On the lower power due to altitude thing, I'd always heard that fuel injection eliminated that problem, but I guess it's not that simple. ???