Racer X ReduX: Predictable Surprises from Hangtown
Tuesday, May 22, 2012 | 6:00 PM
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PrintWhen is a surprise not a surprise, yet still surprising?
Thursday night before Hangtown, I had an epiphany. Two, actually. First, I figured out how to spell epiphany. Second, I realized I was going about things all wrong trying to make predictions for Hangtown. The more I thought about the race, the more I studied previous results and looked at potential scenarios, the more I realized that supercross results only throw us off coming into the motocross opener. Time after time, we study the indoor results closely to try to find some evidence of how the motocross tour will begin. And, time after time, the predictions we make are wrong, because motocross is a completely different animal.
Witness, of course, the two race winners from Hangtown, James Stewart and Blake Baggett. Hard to figure which rider had a more disappointing indoor season. Yes, Stewart carried the higher profile and higher expectations into 2012, but I talked to Baggett after many a supercross and found him as beaten down, disappointed and frustrated as any rider can be. After winning a Lites SX race in 2010 and then a few of them in 2011, Baggett was expected to take the big leap and duel for an indoor title this season. Instead, he actually regressed, failing to win a race and often coming up way short of the podium.
In the pits after the St. Louis Supercross, Blake unveiled his frustrations in one of the most candid—and shortest—interviews I’ve done in quite some time.
After an up and down supercross season, Stewart came out swinging outdoors.
Simon Cudby photo
Blake Baggett: Yeah… No. Not even close.
Any ideas?
I need to do something.
Are you good? Like are you healthy? Is there an issue?
Nah, I’m healthy.
So you can’t really find any excuses, unfortunately?
No. I just got smoked by guys I can normally beat.
So there was plenty of reason to think Baggett wouldn’t just turn it on when the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship began. After all, even though he did win Hangtown last year, he also won the final East Lites SX race of the season in Las Vegas, too (a race that absolutely no one remembers). This year, he was starting from a dead stop.
But, he found the magic again. And Baggett magic is not rabbit out of the hat stuff. It’s “David Copperfield made the Statue of Liberty disappear” stuff. Went backwards early in the first moto and found himself in eighth. Then turned it up at the halfway mark and started picking riders off. And, once again, here is where I say YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE ABLE TO DO THAT! What Baggett does, when he does it, flies in the face of every motocross riders’ strategy. You’re supposed to win races from the start, not the end, and the fact that Baggett has so much speed in the tank that he can wait 15 minutes into a race and still catch and pass everyone defies all logic. No one does this. No one I can remember, ever. Not Carmichael, not Stewart, not Villopoto…no one waited until halfway through the race to then turn it up, not in the hyperactive 125/Lites/250 class. It’s true that Baggett has something very special, but, it’s so special that you wonder if it’s repeatable every week. It wasn’t last year.
So that’s what made Baggett’s win a surprise. It was, somehow, a carbon copy of the exact same way he won Hangtown last year, same guy, same bike, same track and yet, a complete surprise that it happened. I don’t know if we’ll ever get used to seeing performances like that.
Baggett was on the radar entering Hangtown, but was far from a favorite.
Simon Cudby photo
Stewart was the exact opposite. Even though he had barely even raced since his Daytona supercross win two months ago, and was also debuting a new bike in his Yoshimura Suzuki, and hadn’t really put a focus on riding motocross in four years, no one seemed to doubt Stewart coming into this one. He went fastest in both practices and went 1-1 in the motos. It was the least shocking shocking performance ever—I can’t imagine another rider crashing and struggling as much as Stewart did in supercross, then making a mid-season change to a new bike, returning to Hangtown for the first time in four years, winning, and yet somehow not really surprising anyone. That’s the kind of respect you just have to have for Stewart’s abilities.
So, if you’re keeping track, Baggett did exactly what he did last year, on the same track and same bike, and that was a shock. Stewart hadn’t even raced at Hangtown in four years and was on a brand-new bike and team. But his win was predictable. I don’t think everyone expected him to win, but I don’t think anyone was completely in shock that he did.
But we still can’t make predictions from here. Cautious optimism reigns at the motocross opener. Throughout the day, our TV crew interviewed a bunch of riders about their expectations for the year. From a list of riders including Stewart, Baggett, Ryan Dungey, Davi Millsaps, Tyla Rattray, Andrew Short, Mike Alessi and Justin Barcia, the theme of their answers were the same:
“Just get through the first round. Just use it to build. Improve steadily from here. Be consistent. Make it through all the rounds healthy. Be on the podium or in the top five throughout the year.” You could have written up cue cards with those statements and just had the riders read them on camera—everyone had the exact same goal and the exact same things to say.
And why not? Baggett and Stewart, for example, have never lacked in speed, just consistency. While Stewart certainly posses the ability to lock down a motocross title—the 24-0 thing got brought up constantly throughout the weekend—you can also find plenty of YouTube highlight reels of his more spectacular crashes.
But history tells us not to write off guys like Dungey just yet.
Simon Cudby photo
And Baggett, just as quickly as he attacked last year, would suddenly lose it. His five wins last year were dotted with several motos where he just did not have it. But he is not alone—this week, you’re going to hear a lot of bench racing about previous motocross season openers where the winners couldn’t duplicate their success throughout the year.
Such as: Chad Reed’s performance at the 2009 opener at Glen Helen was forgettable, but he went on the win the title. He then won Hangtown in both 2010 and 2011, but 2010 turned into a disastrous year, and 2011’s title drive ended in a massive crash. Baggett fizzled after winning Hangtown last year, and so did 2010 Hangtown winner Eli Tomac. Ryan Dungey pretty much sucked at the opener in 2010 but then dominated the season. Indeed, most recent title drives were ignited in the second half—like Trey Canard and Dean Wilson in 250s the last two years, or Ryan Villopoto finally getting his way when the 2012 KX450F debuted last year at Unadilla.
Coming into Hangtown, the data from supercross tends to lead us in the wrong direction. And, amazingly, the data from Hangtown also tends to lead us the wrong way after the race—there’s no way you saw Ryan Villopoto, Dean Wilson, Ryan Dungey or Trey Canard as the logical championship favorites after Hangtown the last two years. It’s almost like we have three seasons in one. The Monster Energy Supercross Championship, the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship, and the wacky Hangtown opener in between.
Of course, past history doesn’t mean it will work out like that again. But if you’re racing Baggett or Stewart this summer, you had better hope so.
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Bagget is a beast outdoors....and a scrub indoors
very simple
Nice write up and great job on the tube this weekend Weig.
I think most of us folks who respect JS7 as a rider and blow off all the hater nonsense, knew it was possible for James to go 1-1....But i think alot of us also thought that, it couldnt/wouldnt happen that easily....surely the new bike, new team and the way he was coming off the SX season would play into the "mental" piece of things...but I dont think we saw anything remotely close to a crash, mental breakdown etc from James....I think folks were waiting for that moment where they could say " see, he blew it "...but James was smoother, faster, more patient and apprently more confident then the competition. Going out there "just for fun" and taking the 1-1 overall rather easily has to weigh in on guys like Dungey.....It is only one race and pleanty more racing to go......so great way to start if your James Stewart....a suprise, but not really....
What happened to Baggett last year!Well let me tell you what happened.He was on a roll won 5 races and then some DumAss started calling him El Chupacabra and jinxed the kid.Hahahahahahaha!!! Now that same DumAss is trying to do it again this year.Why don't don't you put him on the cover of RacerX while you're at it as well.Then he will be jinxed for sure Weeg.
Blake seems to see lines that others miss, the way he landed on the side of the bank before the rutted left hander...good stuff...also he reminds me a little of Magoo, some days he would just have crazy speed and at the next race he might not be top 5. the 250's will be the class to watch so much talent!!
The 450's will be good to just the racing will be more spread out...the top two, if you will, are just a step ahead of the second seven...still will be exciting as they try and get the top..I do think we will see at least 3 differant winners ...just not sure who is going to step it up
Indeed Mr. MX ---- Alessi....he got that 2nd holeshot...pulled on Dungey and Stew for about 2 laps or so...then he hit his wall that he always hits....he can go like hell when he gets that holeshot for a few laps and everyone is sucking up the mud on the freshly watered track.....I was suprised he actually passed Dungey back, which was more of a mistake on Dungey's part then Alessi making a pass.....But then he was a ROAD BLOCK for almost 2 laps and Stewart said enough of this and passed them both within 3 turns.........Alessi almost took Stewart out crossing over in the air just to save face and avoid the inevitable....he held on for 3rd which is good no doubt....but Hangtown is his best track and unless RD and Stewart have a really bad moto at the same time....his chances on stealing some moto wins are slim.....
I think the oudoors has always been won in the final half...training and heart will catch up with tired speed. Bagget WAS flyin though....good to see...gonna be great racing in this class...Looked like Havoc could ride all day at that speed...the go pro looked like he could also turn it up when he had to...will get interesting when RD dials it up down the line for sure.
Hay Can We Talk About Why The New YZ 450f is a Weird Bike to Ride??????? A lot of people bring it up and never Explain it
YZ is a so different because the motor is back wards. This causes the weight to be distributed more central. The piston no longer moves forward (which gives the bike more feeling up front). To me it feels like it always wants to stand up. It's a totally different bike. I can see the 2012 WR450 being the base for the all new YZ450. It's sleek, slender, fuel injected, not sure how it handles. Seems like a sick bike if it was intended for MX. I'm debating on keeping my 2010 YZ450 until the new revised bike comes out or selling it off for the best deal on the big 3.....
@Mr-Mx
Mr-Mx is "a mighty bold statement" to quote Vincent Vega.
Dude, thanks for the profound post race prognostication that 15 would not make it with the shoulder ! Way to go out on a limb !
Whats the over / under on Albrecht ( after his 2 web bombs) doing the the walk of shame with Logano.
Much respect,
JimM
Pala374
Finally , Baggett actually did a 1/2 lap more than everyone with all those warp speed outside lines.
Count me in as an 800 fan.
Maybe Mr-Mx could use some of his diverse influence to get Mike Webb to kick down a set of the teams suspension !
JimM
Pala374
I know it was just one race so far, But I am thinking the Dunge has got to be having a week filled with some sleepless nights. If anyone is gonna be a title threat, He is right there, but man! He hung with Stew really well, the lappers did kinda interfere, but once that happened, Stew was freakin gone. Im a fan of all of them, and it sure is going to be an awesome season. We as fans are really lucky! Thats for sure!
Mr Mx
Happy to say I will be attending Freestone...first time to the track..really looking forward to it. Going down to ride my V-rod down friday ..maybe see ya there
@Mr-Mx: Thanks for making me hungry (again). That first video of Corinos was all I needed. But, what I can't understand is, why does a nice East Coast kinda guy want to go sweat his, "Huevos Rancheros" off in the insane heat of Freestone for.
It's hot enough down there to make a dog vomit...
I can't wait to see that cat you got hide'n in that bag of yours. And why are you keeping it tied up in the poke in the first place. You haven't been smokin rope again, have ya?
You guys and your crystal balls of speculation drive me nuts. I stay so far away from predicting for one good reason. The minute I predict someone to win, is the moment that poor SOB is cursed worse that black cat you're carry'n around in that poke of yours.
The only prediction I will make in Freestone is, "It will be too Frickin Hot for anybody in their right mind to ride 30+2." Give me 75 degrees 24/7 and I am a happy clam. That's what directed me to Ory-gone in the first place.
Speaking of Clams, some steamers sound pretty good about now...
Thanks for the, Hors d' Oeuvres, Mr-MXer...;~}}}
stewy and dunge ... it was over before it started
Can't make it to Freestone Mr-Mx but thanks for the food tips, when I do get down there I will check it out.It's all about the local food on a road trip.I am going to ride something this weekend, it's going to be in the 90's so maybe a track day on the ZX6R instead of the KX.Also I am glad arm01 is gone.
PW29 the yamaha is not 'backwards' the head is turned around and the cylinder is slightly laid back. Motor placement and horrible road racer frame design contributes more to the vague front end and rigid ride...that hard hit doesn't help matters either...if they stick with this you'll find .i think anyway ,that the cylinder being tilted back has little effect if the crank is in the right (more forward) location. Just my opinion ...don't want some of mr mx's stalker buddys showing up at my window.....
The piston motion puts forces into the frame, in the YZ it is to the back when everything else is trying to push forward on the frame,like the swingarm. The frame has to distribute those forces and the YZ is confused. just my opinion.
The YZ is a cool idea and Yamaha is not afraid to be different, sometimes successfully, but chances are they will go back to a conventional setup and it will be great.All the manufacturers build a turd every once in awhile
@VistaJim; And you probably think the mono-shock concept is nothing more than a whim...
And you are probably fool enough to believe the world is something other than flat.
Dreamer....
Short is another Guy who everyone says is in great shape but he seems to fade a little every moto, I wonder if its mental? But in moto 2 he did come back and zap metty on the last lap. But in the middle of the race he slowed it seemed.
Vista Jim Sorry I meant, "And you probably think the mono-shock concept is something more than a whim...
Baggetts ride was simply incredible, again! I thought last year was the coolest moto ever and he topped it this year. I really thought Roczen had him covered in the first moto. But after this first race I see Kenny having an awesome summer, the kid was really fast.
And I thought Millsaps looked very good in moto one and will get better when things head east.
When you reach the professional level they all have alot of talent and speed.The mental game is what seperates the good from the great. I have heard more and more riders say thay in interviews..You can be in great shape but if your still not mentally strong it can cause fading...Yes MR Mx . 400 is very close....Will stay near Azel then go on down Sat. morning...Looking forward to it ....Have not seen a national live since 06 Millville....
tonewall - Agreed about the cylinder. However, if you take the degree of the angle of the 2009 piston and shaft it's not slightly slanted it's pretty drastic. Good comparison to a sport bike. It actually reminds me of a Ducati. Either way, small changes in piston angle make a big different in Gyro and weight distribution. It's been a while since I've ridden a different model but I'm used it. I'm not a fan on how sensitive it is to suspension adjustments. I do have to run my rear shock softer and increase the sag to get it to handle better. I used to ride over the front but this bike doesnt allow.
@pw29 finally a decent discussion without some kids wacky input... As the crank is turning the same direction and the pistons movement (especially the ultra short stoke motors like these) is not even close momentum wise as the crank I don't see that..look how straight up the Kaw and Honda motors are. The rear ward weight of the head and related parts may tip the scale though. I've always thought now that the cylinder is back why not move the crank down and forward and dump the wide funky road race for something a bit more forgiving. I still think its a good bike for the average guy and Yamaha is burning the cad as we speak ..you can count on that.