Bench Racing Ammo: Why Round Three Matters
Wednesday, January 18, 2012 | 4:00 PM
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PrintThe opening rounds of the Monster Energy Supercross Championship are often strange races, as nerves and hype impact the riders, and teams are often revising setups after actually trying things out in a race. But by the third round, setups and expectations are more clear—and that’s why round three often ends up as the most exciting race of the year.
Witness last year’s four-rider smackdown with Ryan Dungey, James Stewart, Trey Canard and Ryan Villopoto—where Villopoto came from way back to win. Witness 2010’s third round, with an injured Stewart battling Dungey and Josh Hill in another slugfest, with Dungey coming out on top. And round three of 2009 was good, too, with Stewart fighting the likes of Kevin Windham for the lead, and barely holding off a fast-closing Chad Reed to take the win. Round three almost always serves up the goods, because the nerves are gone, the teams have had two races to dial in their setups, and it’s too early for anyone to have lost hope and confidence.
Ryan Villopoto won round three last year en route to his first career Supercross class title.
Photo: Simon Cudby
But at round three, you can really start to see who has the right stuff. Proof? The winner of AMA SX round three has gone on to win the championship for the last nine years—nine straight!
2011: Round 3 Winner: Ryan Villopoto/AMA SX Champion: Ryan Villopoto
2010: Round 3 Winner: Ryan Dungey/AMA SX Champion: Ryan Dungey
2009: Round 3 Winner: James Stewart/AMA SX Champion: James Stewart
2008: Round 3 Winner: Chad Reed/AMA SX Champion: Chad Reed
2007: Round 3 Winner: James Stewart/AMA SX Champion: James Stewart
2006: Round 3 Winner: Ricky Carmichael/AMA SX Champion: Ricky Carmichael
2005: Round 3 Winner: Ricky Carmichael/AMA SX Champion: Ricky Carmichael
2004: Round 3 Winner: Chad Reed/AMA SX Champion: Chad Reed
2003: Round 3 Winner: Ricky Carmichael/AMA SX Champion: Ricky Carmichael
The last round three winner to not win the title was in 2002, when Mike LaRocco won Anaheim 2 but did not win the championship.
Who will come out on top this weekend in L.A.?
Photo: Simon Cudby
To take this concept further, let’s contrast with last week’s Bench Racing Ammo, where we followed the round one winner-to-championship connection since 1999. Here are the round three winners from 1999 to 2002:
2002: Round 3 Winner: Mike LaRocco/AMA SX Champion: Ricky Carmichael
2001: Round 3 Winner: Jeremy McGrath/AMA SX Champion: Ricky Carmichael
2000: Round 3 Winner: David Vuillemin/AMA SX Champion: Jeremy McGrath
1999: Round 3 Winner: Jeremy McGrath/AMA SX Champion: Jeremy McGrath
As a whole, since 1999, the round three winner has won 10 of 13 championships, or 76 percent of the time. In contrast, the round one winner in that same time span has only won the title five times, or 38 percent of the time.
What’s all of this mean? Riders better fight hard for the win this weekend!
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nothing like stating stats to jinx things.hahhahaa......Pretty crazy statistics, however 73% is not 100%, so anything can happen, more so these past 2 years than years before where you realistically had 2 major players going for the title....
2003 - 2006 was Reed or Carmichael
2007 - 2009 was JS7 or. Reed
2010 was Dungey or ???? Dungey I guess.....
2011 you had Reed, Canard, RV, Dungey and Stewart....
2012 you have the same.....
Hole shot!
Very interesting stat, I wonder how many of them got the hole shot?
I type to slow i got crashed in the first turn by killomoto
That stat may not hold true this year. LA could be a mud race, and a free-for-all...
Killomoto, don't be an idiot and discredit Dungeys championship in 2010. By round 3, RV was still in it, and RD won. RV crashed under ptessure from RD. In st. Louis, that's not Dungeys fault.lN 2010 Dungey was the man.
I said before the season Weimer was gonna be better than people thought. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top 4 when all is said and done. I also think the track will be just fine this weekend. The guys in charge do an excellent job of keeping the track perfectly race worthy in more rain than what is expected. I just hope we can get a dry San Diego, the last few years that race has been on the only weekend of the year that they got rain!
Partyboy - RV had the momentum late in the season and had RD #, the last three races would have been epic. RV could catch RD at will. Not to take anything from RD, he did what he does best, stay on the box. He deserved to be champ that year. Not hate-in, just say-in. RD was given a present at RV expence
......And RV was given presents back last year with a derailed chain and an empty gas tank at Dungey's expense ;) Stay healthy boys and GOOD LUCK. You will need it.
yea, it was sure nice of him to return the favor. Oh wait, wouldn't that of made CR champ? nice try! kidding around and smack talking aside, RD DESERVED to be 2010 champ.
yea, I screwed up. fir get the CR part.....
and yet some really smart business men and women decided to remove (or even prevent?) the radio broadcast so we can listen in live when it's not on tv. that's just JACKED UP, well about 100% of the time.
Round three! Bring it on! Perhaps there will be a battle for the lead this week!
@partyboy ...don't read into too much...not discrediting RD at all....just saying there wasn't a another guy there all season to give him a consistent challenge for the title.....Reed , Stewart were the 2 top guys who went out....and RV started out slow and then went out with injury....2012 if we forget the chain then we forget Jacksonville and he still would have come up short
RV2 has already took the 2011 season hype waded it up in a ball and chucked it out the door. This thing is OVER!! rnd 2 went dead last to a podium and a clear runaway in rnd 1. Stew is the only rider with the speed and he is all mental right now. If RV2 can keep it up right and stay away from his usual diet of tasty earth sandwich's this thing is over...IF NOT..then RD5 wins with 17 straight podiums(Which will happen),,LOL..22 will win one, 41 will get one, and 7 I don't know right now..7 needs to put his cape back on and go super balls again...
P.S.. That 2012 kawi has everyone i ride with talking.. No doubt Villo has become superman on it.. and Weimer has risen from the dead.. He is reallly fast and is gonna build some more confidence Maybe even a win or two.. I just might be signing on as Kawigreen very soon.. That thing has some mojo in it....
KilloMoto...........you say the same shit all the time and it gets old. I think BillC has two names.
Does anyone remember when Dungey wasn't on the box? Not including his mechanical DNF's. I think there was a 4th in there somewhere. Either way it's Mr. Consistancy VS the Lickity Splitity Leprichaun. That's a recipie for some good racing my friends.
Haha wow that first set of stats is creepy, lets go dungemiesterflex
@yamyblues: That is utter nonsense.
The 3rd round premise may not hold this year. Teams really only have 1 race testing setups under typical SX track conditions since the A1 track was unlike most anything teams had used to do preseason testing. They just had to go with what they had with a few guesses.
This might be the year that round 4 is the better predictor. But we'll only know in May, unless someone starts an MC-like run starting this weekend.
Bring on Round 3!
To Harv the mushy mushman. What is utter non sense.. RV getting better on the 2012.? Weimer rebuilding confidence on his 2012 kawi..? or Dungey being consistant enough to make the podium every round..? OR Stew being mental right now,,? LOL ...Cuz those are all wacked out statements that no one else in the world could see ..I need you to pick which one of those absolute truths you consider utter non sense so I can pick you apart like the retard you are...
If LA is a mudder like the forecast suggests, the round three stats and set up discussion may not have any relevance.
Not a Stewart fan but still have the feeling, probably at LA, he is going to get a start and ride away from everyone and the article next week will be, what's wrong with Villopoto? Has he lost it? Ha ha, we are so fickle, this is far from over. The only guarantee IMO is that Dungey will be there at the end.
I like how everyone says that RV's speed cant be matched, but dungey was off like .10 or something. Rv is just aggressive, Dungey is smooth, Rv will hang it out, but just different styles.
I wonder if you could apply this same math to Round 4 or Round 5 or Round X? Sure could. There's probably a round in the season that would give you an even closer correlation if you did all the comparisons. But hey, I'm already sold on Round 3. I think they should definitely go racing.
PartyBoy.. RV did not crash because of thr pressure from RD... Please.
Interesting stats on the last dozen or so years, Jason. However, there is an (average) when it comes to weather as well. 70% average for rain (all) day. Granted, if the grounds keep folks are doing their job and keep as much covered for as long as they can, good for them but, qualifying and heats still must be run, leaving all that nice dry dirt to get nice and 70% muddy. Now if the weather changes and it stays clear, well ain't that perty.
Mudder, throw all logic out with the baby and the bathwater. This is (still) Supercross, (not) dancing with the stars, and way too many variables to count wishes and fishes...Just my thoughts.
@coolhand... I suppose your right....we are all a bunch of dorks!!!
Mud races (depending on how muddy) definatley change things up....
Hey Jason, I think your point(s) are well taken and it makes for great bench racing, and what else are we to do during the week (while it rains). I just do not want to come off as throwing you or anyone else under the bus. It was a surprising group of stats and an interesting read. Now hurry up write something else will ya? We're getting wet out here, damnit!
@yamyblues... Thanks for the stats you gave us all , That crystal ball you have really comes in handy , now I dont have to waste time watching the races ..
I have noticed that when its a mudder the top guys usally finish up front but it does seem to affect them somewhat- bottom line they all race the same track and its all good. Its called variaty.
2010 when RV wrecked he had passed RD and was maintaining, they were both riding very well, RV had won the last 4-5 in a row and his confidence was on a high. Before the jump he wrecked on the dirt had wore down to concrete and the rut was so deep his pegs dragged dirt up the jump face- this wasn't a jump he struggled with a routine triple. He simply made a mistake that was not pressure induced, and payed a very high price for it. RD deserved the title that year as much as anyone has ever.
As for this year YES I feel RV has the edge right now, but for me to say he has the title would be foolish. The top 6 are awesome and we are all having fun watching it play out. RD rode perfect in my book, so did RV and he wasn't on the edge. I didn't see him slide out hit tough blocks or get crossed up in the whoops at all like both CR and JS did, just attacked the track with 100% focus. I feel he could have pushed a little harder and got Weimer but that would have required going to his edge and risk failure.
I am a RV fan since 06, but I really like and respect most all the top riders and have a blast watching.
Watching JS I have to say I think he is trying very hard to ride clean and careful and I hope he can compete without hurting anyone else or himself. He rode well in pheonix til he went down, easily pased TC,CR and several others.
Well I liked the stats gave some perspective. As for the tracks so far, so what everyone races on the same track. I am also tired of this one lined talk all tracks are one lined ya just gotta be faster or smarter to pass. So bring on a mud race and if you are good and ya want it you will still be where you are gonna finish. At the level the guys are at weather it is wet or dry it is not as much as going faster it iis riding smater. I know there are some good racers and ex racers on this chatsite and untill you reach thaat level some people dont understand.
dodger stadium here i come... go dungey, go trey!
bring the rain! go Kdub. I loved racing in bad weather, specially offroad. survival mode kicks in big time.
Dungey may have had the chain deal, but dont forget RV didnt even qualify at Jacksonville, but he still came out on top