10 Things to Watch for at A1
Wednesday, January 4, 2012 | 10:50 AM
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PrintBy Steve Matthes and Aaron Hansel
10. MotoConcepts’ Concept: Unhappy with the support (or lack thereof) he was receiving from the manufacturers, team owner Mike Genova decided to take a much different approach to racing this year by fielding a team of riders on multiple brands. A multi-brand team isn’t something you see every day in the pits, but Genova is excited about the possibilities. The departure from Yamaha also means that the team’s star rider, Mike Alessi, is free to get back in the Suzuki saddle. Granted, Alessi has never been a dominant force in supercross, but if he starts ripping holeshots like he did when he was on a factory Suzuki, he could pull some solid results and keep MotoConcepts on the industry radar.9. Team Wild Card: The The Dodge Motorsports/Hart and Huntington/Sycuan Casino/Loc-Tite/Kawasaki/we’vegotmoresponsorsthananyone team is showing up at Anaheim 1 in a big way. They have added another semi-truck and are running a four-rider team. The stripper poles and beer pong that used to fill this team’s pit area has been gone for a long time. They are ready to go racing and make a mark in the sport, and they have the talent to do it. With solid veteran Ivan Tedesco leading the way, a coming back from injury Josh Hill, a coming back into the 450 class with something to prove Josh Hansen and the best ride he’s ever had Kyle Partridge, the team is the wild card in the pits.
We know what we’re going to get from Tedesco but Hill, Hansen and Partridge are the ones we’re not sure about. Before Hill hurt himself, he was a top five-to-podium guy in every single race and was really coming into his own. Hansen’s been in the class before and failed. He could have stayed in 250s for another year and probably done pretty well but he wanted the challenge of the big class and obviously has something to prove. And Partridge showed some good speed at the Monster Energy Cup.
This is either going to end up with Tedesco in the top ten and three DNQ’s, or all four guys are going to make it and do great. There’s no middle ground with this team, and that’s why we should all be watching.
Hansen and the H&H team may be the biggest wild cards entering A1.
Photo: Simon Cudby
8a. The 250 Class: We told Matthes to write this one, and he said, “I would love to write about the 250 Class but since a lot of teams are not disclosing who’s racing what coast, I’ll just skip it. Maybe someone from a team will read this and think about how they missed out on some press because they didn’t want to tip their hand in case of a last minute injury. Thinking that your east coast riders are going to be on the couch drinking beer unless you kept them on their toes wondering what coast they’re riding is ridiculous. I think that Eli Tomac, Dean Wilson, Blake Baggett, Wil Hahn, Justin Bogle, Justin Barcia, Blake Wharton, Jason Anderson, Martin Davalos, Matt Lemoine, Ryan Sipes, Kyle Cunningham, Kyle Peters and Nico Izzi are all looking great for the west coast. Or whatever coast they’re racing.”
8b. We do know Eli Tomac will race West: Last season, Tomac lost the Western Regional SX Lites championship to Broc Tickle by a mere six points. This year, Tickle will be racing a 450, as will Tomac’s other West Lites antagonist, Josh Hansen. This leaves Tomac as a heavy title favorite, and no matter who joins him in the west, look for him to be running at the front and battling for wins every time the gate drops as he attempts to bring home the championship he came so close to winning last year.
7. CRtwotwo: Last year we had no idea what to expect from Chad Reed. This year we do—he’s going to be up front. Armed from the get-go with a factory Honda, and with a larger staff packing even more experience, Reed will shock no one if he brings an early race win to his team.
6. James Stewart: Yep, it’s that simple folks. We know what we’re going to get from guys like Villopoto, Reed and Dungey, but what will we see from Bubba? If he was on another color bike, I think we’d all be more confident of what we’re going to see, but with Stewart staying blue (albeit on a JGR Yamaha) most of us are wondering which James Stewart is going to show up at Anaheim.
Will it be the guy that won something like 90 percent of the races that he didn’t crash in? Or will we see the guy who was actually caught and passed by Ryan Villopoto and Chad Reed at times last year? Will it be the guy that we saw wash his front end in turns, endo in the whoops and make weird mistakes? Or the guy who went quad-quad at Anaheim 2 last year and ran away with it?
Stewart didn’t like his Yamaha last year but by all accounts of the insiders, he very much likes the JGR version, and we know that team is going to unveil something pretty trick on Saturday morning. Prediction? He’s either going to kill ’em on Saturday night or he’ll crash. Yup, get ready for some more hijinks!
What James Stewart will we see at A1?
Photo: Garth Milan
5. RV1: Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Ryan Villopoto lowered his number by one which means he’s going to have the target on him at the races. All eyes will be on RV to see if he can keep on hauling butt. There’s not much doubt that Villopoto, who continued his relationship with trainer Aldon Baker, will be coming in fit, fast and fealthy (that’s healthy with an “F” to make it sound catchy).
With the new 2012 Kawasaki KX450F under him (a bike that seemed to be the spark he needed last summer), we have fewer questions about Ryan than we do for the other contenders. We know what we’re getting and barring injury, he’s going to be there right to the end.
4. Dungey’s New Ride: You wanted questions? Well here’s a whole bunch of them right here with the number 5. We’re not worried about Ryan, though, we know he’ll be ready to go and will be fast. But with apologies to Lance Armstrong, this is about the bike and more specifically about Dungey’s all-new KTM 450SXF.
From Mike Fisher to Cliff Palmer to Jeremy McGrath to Nick Wey to Mike Alessi to Andrew Short, KTM has never made the podium in the premier class in supercross. To advance from that stat to go all the way to the top of the points by season’s end is a pretty big task. And it’s not like the bike Dungey’s racing is tried and true. It’s all-new! The learning curve will be steep for Ryan and his team but I have no doubt they’ll figure it out soon enough and that podium-less streak will end this year. But last year, even on a proven bike, Ryan lacked some of the speed that his competitors had. This year, I think it’s fair to say he might be lacking a bit in the bike department. At least for a while.
3. Trey Canard’s Impact: Will he race? No one really knows quite yet, but he’s back riding from his collarbone break and even if he lines up at A1, his fitness will probably not be where he wants it to be. Canard has to tip-toe a fine line when he does get back because no one, especially not himself or Honda, wants to see him back on the sidelines. The #41 will be a factor for race wins at some point, but as far as this Saturday? We’ll just have to see.
Can Dungey break the streak at A1?
Photo: Simon Cudby
2. New Faces and Old Places: Andrew Short didn’t have the best year of his life in 2011, but his results weren’t as bad as you think. He finished sixth in the points and nabbed a pair of fourth-place finishes on a bike that was 100cc’s smaller than the ones he was racing against. Now he’s back on a 450, and a factory Honda at that with the new Supercross.com team. He’s got Larry Brooks and Jeremy McGrath backing him. Will Short’s situation give him the edge he needs to get back on the podium? What about Justin Brayton? Does his move to Team Honda give him the edge he needs to become a podium guy?
Meanwhile, other riders are staying put. Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Jake Weimer gets to hit reset after breaking his arm before the 2011 opener. Davi Millsaps gets a do-over with JGR after a sub-par supercross season. Brett Metcalfe is back with Suzuki after missing half of the year last year with injury. And you can never count out Kevin Windham, racing year infinity on his GEICO Factory Connection Honda.
1. The Opener Effect: Whether it’s Sebastian Tortelli coming from way back to take the win in 1998, Ricky Carmichael crashing out in 2002, Josh Grant winning in 2009 after Chad Reed and Stewart crashed into one another, or Reed pulling out with wheel damage in 2010, the season opener has a way of producing some wild and unexpected results. Will 2012 keep with A1’s reputation of unpredictability?
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Good job, Matthes! Or did Aaron do the heavy lifting?
4 days and counting! ;-))
I am ready!!!...I'll be watching A1 from the couch where there are no beer or bathroom lines which would cause me to miss any action...
I guess its a sign of the times with all the media sources we ...In years past, going back to let say 1997, there is always excitement coming into A1...but now since we see and hear everything the riders, teams and sponsors are doing via Internet sites like RX, twitter, facebook...it seems to poke the fire that much more....
I think this is one of the best Racer X articles I have ever read!
I think Dungey is no doubt going to podium! I work for a KTM dealership, and the motor that he is using in that bike is a production motor in one of the XC bikes, and it is a BAAAAAAAD motor, even in the tamed down form of the XC! Look for Dungey and the whole KTM team, to be a dominant podium force!
That being said, I AM SOOOOO READY FOR A1!
GO RV1
This will be a great year in our sport.
fealthy? really?
Not to nick pick but it's early and I had like a minute long brain fart figuring out "feathly"? The funny faded when you spelled your made up word wrong. Anyway, I have to say Hansen will be the true wild card on team wild card. All the other guys will do fine but Hansen's either in it or out of it. It will be great to see him in it because I think he'll be nipping at the heals of the top 5 and block passing the 6-10 all season.
AWE YOU FIXED IT! Well played haha.
Trey - May be good for him to race A1 and go for top 10 or top 5 for points depending how the collarbone feels....definitly do not want to risk further injury or another injury caused by trying to play it safe....
Reed - He will be ready to go...He starts up front..he will stay there unless he is off pace for some reason...I say he makes podium unless something whacky happens
RV - Just go with the flow RV!!! Get a top 5 start..the speed is there and pending any craziness, RV will be on podium
Dungey - I think Dungey will and can run up front, but may be a little gun shy and a little off pace like last year which will place him off the podium if the others avoid disaster.....
JS7 - JS7 could come out and as stated above "kill em"....nothing like seeing someone comeback to their old form....JS7 showed the capability to do just that a few times last year, only to throw it away.....the redundant question has been what caused those issues....bike, team or what??? I think A1 this year will shed some light....its a 50/50 deal I guess...he either will "kill em" or crash....I dont think JS7 not being able to run pace or not being top 2 in timed practice is an option...he will be there no doubt.
The rest - many variables out there....if we could predict the future then we'd all be in a different line of work....but the results are for the taking...so good luck to all...
this is a really stacked field, the deepest in a long time. if everyone stays healthy this is going to be one great year. I would like to see Windham show up with the same speed he had in Vegas.
Easily the most exciting time of any season is right now. Once again we got 9 months of racing ahead of us, 17 supercross races, 12 nationals, 16 G.P.'s and to top it all off the MXoN. I'm starting to think were a little spoilt, and I love it! 3 days people, 3 days :) :) :)
Tomac in the West. Musquin top five at Best. Roczen in the East. Anybody's guess as to who wins at any round in the 450's, much less the title, but here's my picks: Stewart at A1 and Villo wins the title.
How crazy would it be to see Dungey post the fastest lap time in practice?
Even if Alessi holeshots he will not make top 5!! Maybe not even top 10!!
JGR version, and we know that team is going to unveil something pretty trick on Saturday morning. Prediction?....Two wheel drive?? LOL
I hope I am wrong but I don't think anyone will match RV and JS week in and week out. There will be some races where Reed or RD or someone else is there but over all RV and JS will win the most races again this year and if they don't get hurt one will be the champ.
GWN... I would be SHOCKED!!! I don't know if he did that even once last year so to do it on a new bike would be shocking!!! I think RD and the Team will need a few weeks to get diled in and he will have a hard time getting win's. He only had one last year on a bike he knew like the back of his hand and it took a holeshot and a RV and JS crash to get it. I want to see KTM win and will be pulling for him to do it but I still want RV to win the title again.
Unfortunately, I think we'll see the quad-quad version of Stewart. Fortunately, I think we'll see the quad-quad version of Reed, Dungey, and Villopoto also. Yes, Dungey too. I love A1.
Alessi will definitely make the top 5... at the Moto Concepts rig.
I'm a Reed fan. However, IMO i don't think he is completely mentally past his Millville crash. Results afterward were way off. Although Supercross is a different beast than Moto, the potential for a Millville type crash is very real. Kinda surprised this wasn't mentioned.
This is a really wild guess about JGR and the new trick? You old timers remember when Decoster and a few others had the leading link front suspension, It worked great but at the time we did not have the engineering to make it last and ilt was hard to maintain. I just had to think of the most far out thing that they could possibly do? That would be somthing! Also I think any suspension mods to the bike are leagal as long as it is the basic frame and a production based engine. Tell me about it BillC.... That was the first think that came to my mind. Now that would bee wild!
It's "nit pick." Nits are lice, and people would spend time picking the lice off their bodies when infested. A tediously detailed task.
Your right: I don't want to nit pick either.
@ eastcoast: Don't forget Reed beat the best in the word at the Des Nations. I would say that you would have to be on your game to pull that one off. He also beat Barcia in the second moto (and took the overall) after crashing (and injuring himself) in the first moto at one of the European SX races. That would also indicate that he was on his mental game and not worried about injury any more than normal.
I agree Bill C js and rv.. as always lot of press hype before A1 but it will be a 2 man race by the end of the Ca.series
hope for more open track designs this year, 16min. mains isn't much time to recover from a bad start..
There is no doubt in my mind that 3 riders will make the podium!
Whoever gets the holeshot between RV, JS, CR, & RD will win. KTM needs that monkey off their back early, but as much as I like Dungey, he could still end up in 4th.
This year, this time, I can't bring myself to root for only one of these guys. I want to see Villopoto defend. I want Reed to show what an old timer can do. I want to see Dungey surprise everyone. I want to see Stewart fly spectacularly out front. I want to see Canard upset the whole game. I want them all to win! And with any luck, I'll see all of that this season. I could care less who wins the championship. I'll let the riders figure that out.
@Welker - how about leading link front suspension and a fuel injected 250 2 stroke for JGR. Now that would be something.
I would be in favor of that. I love two strokes.
i would like to see KTM get that monkey off their back, they paid there dues IMO. JS7 hasn't raced since SX vegas last may (i think?) & almost everyone else has. Supercross only riders are going to suffer first part of SX season with the talent that comes to the line these days. What's JGR suprise? a 3 wheeler so stewey won't washout in the corners? or a normal facing engine?
Bubba on a F.I. 501 Maico
I think that you guys seriously underestimate the bike Dungey is riding. With Decoster there helping with the bike setup and him riding a Fuel Injected KTM, I think that his Equipment is not going to be a problem at all. And, as for firsts, like the first KTM to be on the podium, thats going to happen a lot this season. Also, If there is anyone that can win in the first year at something new its Dungey. Time will tell....
I think the biggest wild card is JS because we have seen him win with ungodly speed and we have seen him crash in ungodly ways, which has pretty much been his story for the last couple of months.
For TC41 if he does line up at A-1 I would advise him to not push it and just go for top 10 or top 5 because at any given that's where he can be.
As for Dungey I think he'll be as strong as he was last year by the end of the year, but he probably does have thing he has to work on before he gets there.
RV1 I'm pulling for RV to win but I hope it's a battle if he does or doesn't win, bottom line is someone will win and like I said someone will win.
Chad Reed will be strong and consistent as usual.
2012 is shaping up to be amazing!
The JGR unveil will be a new fuel tank / bodywork kit to slim the Yammi 4 and a half down IMHO.
nit pick comment - very funny - maico comment - classic - i am with you guys - time to get the party started
I love this pre-season stuff! Everyone is a winner until late Saturday night. Here's my thoughts on the "Fab Five":
Dungey - super consistent and super fit, but I honestly think he needs to more aggressive and now his bike is a question mark as well. He will place well in the overall due to his consistency. I still think his titles in 2010 were as much about who was not there and SX RV2 was the better rider before St Louis.
Reed - same as Dungey, consistent but he has two advantages: a great bike, and a natural aggressive streak. Reed can ride super steady all race but pull the dirty/aggressive move when he needs to. All that experience and having battled RC and JS for titles cannot be taken lightly.
Canard - along with JS he has probably the most pure speed of the fab 5. I was re-watching the 2011 races and he was really, really fast. But like JS, he is also prone to the big mistake and unlike JS he is much more injury prone. I hope he's back in action at A1 or shortly after, he is truly exciting to watch.
Stewart - honestly the fastest guy out there. I was watching the PHX, LA, Oakland, and A2 races from 2011 and he was blazing fast. If that JGR Yamaha is a better bike, and if James is focused and comfortable he's untouchable. But those are big IFs.
Villopoto - IMO the best blend of consistency, aggression, and speed in the sport right now. His 2011 was no accident and if not for that horrific crash in 2010, his 2010 could have been just as good.
Overall after Vegas: 1) RV, 2) JS, 3) CR, 4) RD, 5) TC! JS for the win at A1.
Lites, man I can't even go into detail because there are so many potential winners. And from the start list I cannot really predict who is even riding West/East. My heart says Eli Tomac in the West and if he's healthy, Ken Roczen in the East.
If RV2 was the better rider in 2010, how come he was trailing Dungey in points the entire year? Just sayin'
Before he got hurt, obviously
Matthes, you seem to forgot about Pro Circuits DD.
Reed saturday night! JS7 And RV1 will be great this year, but I see Reed winning it all. He is so comfy and happy with his team/bike this year, more so than last year. A happy and confident Reed is Very scary to the comp. Barring injury...... I hope they all stay healthy this year. And out of Jail...hehehe
@MX Bob, RV was trailing by 12 points before St. Louis, mostly due to a DNF in Atlanta. Remember he won 7 out of 14 starts in 2010 and after Atlanta's DNF he had won 4 out of 5, and was leading in St. Louis. RV really had the series momentum before his crash.
Obviously finishing the season is what makes a season a season, but I'll stand by my comments that Dungey's 2010 SX season was largely impacted by the almost complete absence of JS, the RV crash, and also Reed was injured and missed a lot of the season.
I like RD as a rider and I really admire his consistency and fitness. I just think he lacks a bit of killer instinct and watching the 2011 races again this past week has galvanized that in my mind. However, one could easily argue if he had not dropped his chain in A2 SX, and boiled the Suzuki over at Freestone MX he would have repeated as champ in both for 2011!
Crazy Stacked Field.....LETS GO!!!!
@McMoto - a 501 as long as it has the 40mm Bing drool-o-matic. Can you imagine if the 501 motor was made with current technology? Scarey fast.
Check out the new (as of 2009) Maico 500 - also available in 620cc & 700cc versions
http://twostrokemotocross.com/2009/02/exclusive-2009-maico-500-new-look-photos/
I'm beginning to think my Service Honda isn't fast enough.
Drop the gate! I'm takin' JS in 450 & DW in 250 for the #1 plate!
You guys must have not taken your meds the day you wrote this article. You left out so many lites riders that will battling up from for the west coast lites championship. Those that come to mind are Kyle Cunningham and Cole Seely who won 2 lites main events last year. Instead you talk about unproven guys like Peters who will choke like a python trying to eat an elephant and Boggle these guys have done nada. So both of you stand corrected and lets give the guys that deserve credit just that not rookies who have not done $h1t in Supercross as of today.
"Mike Fisher to Cliff Palmer to Jeremy McGrath to Nick Wey to Mike Alessi to Andrew Short"
With the exception of MC,who never rode an AMA SX on KTM, how many total AMA SX podiums have these guys had combined. I think the KaTooM is gonna surprise a lot of people with Ryan and The Man
PC hasnt announced who is racing what coast......So far, the entire squad is pre-entered to race A1.....I think they will want to keep Bagget and Wilson on seperate coasts...that way they can have a stab at winning both....I see Wilson going east and Bagget staying West.....with Rattray on the West and Durham on East as well....but who knows...unless its been finalized and I have not seen it.
I don't want to be a downer but I think Darren Durham is a little over rated. I know he wasn't on a PC bike last year but that Honda still had the guts to put him in the front several times in the MX season and he let it slip away. His SX standings last year were not impressive either. I hope I'm wrong because he seems like a good kid but I think he will have another 5th-10th year. And that is absolutely nothing to be ashamed of with the stacked field that we have this year.
Wilson looks like he's having fun and when Deano has fun, Deano rides fast. He's got my bet.
Well, its official....Dean and Tyla out west and Bagget and Darren are East...
CE33 - I see what your saying, however jumping on to the PC squad is what can make a rider get to that next level....the bikes, the program and just the reward alone of being on that team is enough to make any rider improve...I think he'll do just fine...it may be tough for him to win with Bagget, Barcia, Roczen and others to contend with....but I see him getting the podium....next year he will be the man to beat I think.
Uh oh.... Yup!, I just found one... :(