Bench Racing Ammo: Mudder’s Day
Thursday, February 17, 2011 | 3:45 PM
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California is getting a bad rap in supercross circles. Yes, winter serves the rainy season in the Golden State, but it’s all relative—even Cali’s rainy season packs less precipitation than the dry time of year in most states!
But the rain always seems to hit on one of the five Saturday nights when California hosts Monster Energy Supercross. With a 70 percent chance of rain in the forecast this Saturday in San Diego, we may be in for another.
So it’s time to start with the mud predictions for the weekend, and the best way to compile them is to look back at the last few mud races on this tour.
This list starts with perhaps the most famous of California mudders, the epic 2005 SX opener in Anaheim. Mud and rain at this one served as a shocker, because the Anaheim SX had been rain-free for decades leading into this one. There’s a reason why British singer Albert Hammond penned the 1972 hit song It Never Rains in Southern California.
But it did on that night. Kevin Windham proved his bad-ass mud prowess by taking the win, and forever stamping himself as one to watch when conditions get sloppy. He has since followed that with a win in the mud in Florida (Daytona ’08) and Utah (Salt Lake City last year). But that 2008 Daytona mud fest could have gone to someone else.
Windham and Chad Reed were battling for the championship at the time, and Reed let it all hang out to stay in front of Windham and make sure he was spraying roost and not catching it. It paid off as he pulled away late in the race—until his bike finally sucked in too much water and let go on the last lap. Reed walked back to the pits in disgust while K-Dub romped to the win.
Windham walked away with the win at Anaheim.
Photo: Simon Cudby
Australians are not usually noted for their mud prowess, but Reed maintained that his experience racing in Europe had made him capable in the slop. Most of the time, he has suffered horrible luck in SX mudders (he took 16th at that A1 ’05 event when his front brake locked up), but his Daytona run proves he’s capable, even if he didn’t actually win the race. Plus, Reed has won a bunch in San Diego. So he’s on the contenders list, too.
James Stewart may have a rep as a high flyer, but he’s no slouch when it comes to grinding out a mudder, either. The 2006 San Francisco SX was about as bad as it gets, and Stewart and Ricky Carmichael battled the whole way. They lapped every other rider on the track and Stewart emerged with the win. Stewart also won the Seattle SX that same year under a driving rain.
Point’s leader Ryan Villopoto hails from Washington, so by that factor alone he should possess good mud experience. But he hasn’t had a chance to perform much. He was sixth in the Lites class during that San Fran ’06 mudder. He may have won the Lites race in Seattle that year, but the West Lites Championship was up for grabs that night, and RV’s teammate Grant Langston, uh, gained some extra points on way to the championship when Villopoto “tried not to hold him up” and let GL go on for the win.
Windham is always a threat in rainy conditions.
Photo: Simon Cudby
RV also duked it out with Trey Canard for the Lites win in Daytona ’08, but Trey had him on the start, everyone pretty much ruined their brake pads in the wet sand, and the battle was over. So that means Canard, last week’s Houston SX winner, has a mud win on his SX resume.
Oddly, we don’t have much data with 2010 SX Champ Ryan Dungey, as he hasn’t been around for most of the recent mudders. He rode so-so to a fifth in the Salt Lake City slop last year, but Windham clobbered the field.
But it’s hard to compare one mud race to another—surely the dirt in Salt Lake City, Daytona and San Diego reacts differently to the rain. So maybe the most accurate forecast comes from last year’s San Diego race, which straddled the boarder of tough and full-on gnarly. And in those soft, rutted conditions, Davi Millsaps busted out a win.
Could this weekend serve as DM18’s breakout again? You never know. We can predict all we want, but forecasts have a rep for inaccuracy. Heck, it may end up sunny this weekend after all!
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During the 2010-11 Winter there has been a strong La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is the cause of the cool weather throughout the Western United States, and the Northern tier in particular. Frequent bursts of arctic weather have and will continue to plunge from Canada, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.
As a result, the probability of mudslides in California is almost a guarantee. This means a few Supercross races will be mudders, just as sure as leaving Matthes alone with 3-dozen bearclaws means they'll be gone when you return.
Last year at Salt Lake City I'm pretty sure Windham lapped Dungey. I hope K-Dub can rebound after last weekend and take a win on Saturday.
I love to copy and paste.... does anybody really think i could come up with that myself??
yeah that salt lake race last year was knarly!!! Kdub lapped everybody except 2nd and 3rd in only 15 laps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if it had been a full 20, I think he would have been the only rider on the lead lap. he was actually faster in the sloppy conditions than in qualifying where it was hardly wet at all! the mud shows who the good racers are!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
I'll never forget the outdoor millville mudder of 2006, when RC4 decimated the entire class!!
This is James and I'm gonna be whipping everybodys butt on Sat. night after my 15th place last week I'm real mad man. Nobodys got a chance man!
Please excuse my ignorance, but what would Matthes do with 36 bear claws?
36 bearclaws is merely a snack for Steve.
Catch 22!
Chowderhead RULES.
Suck it !!
scratch n sniff, that's some funny stuff right there. That bear claw looks pretty awesome. I once dated a girl that looked like that.
Stupid Doppler radar... Chance of precip just dropped to 20% on Saturday. Its just going toe cloudy. bad for windham and milsaps, good for racing.
I just have to say, posting pictures in the comments section takes responding in here to a different level.
When you don't have any mud riding stats to your name, your most likely in for a Dungey. You don't want to be pulling Dungies.
Too bad Millsaps has the worst team manager in the sport. When a former mechanic who has no managing experience whatsoever is your leader, you have problems. When that problem starts badmouthing his best rider by far, then what can you say? Is the team not trying to win? Does it have some internal issues? Are they struggling with the setup? I don't know why they would hire a guy and rip him a shitter career. poor mudflaps should of picked a professional motocross team, too bad.
The only reason Canard won the the mud was rookie luck. No pressure, no problem. Same reason for his lucky comeback outdoors, no pressure, no problem. The same cannot be said for his christian beliefs however, if you pressure him, he has a lot of problems!
Got to love a good mud race now and then. Red was kicking tail at that race in Daytona, and K-Dub is always a good mud rider. I remeber a real bad mudder in Millville one year when RC lapped all the way to 2nd place. He lapped everybody except DV12. It was bad, Stewie had a terrible ride in the mud that day too, dont know how RC managed to ride like he did that day. Dungey is usually bad when the track is muddy, so hes not a threat. RV2 would be one you would think to do well, but he doesnt either usually. Stewie won a real muddy one once before, and of course if K-Dub is healthy he is always a threat in the mud.. Millsaps may surprise, but I have given up waiting for him to do much, way too inconsistant.
Little known information: in "most" of the pac. northwest, there is no "real" mud. The constant rain has washed away all remnants of dirt to leave only sand and "DG". Most of us west coasters don't know about that Georgia red clay that will stain your bike, gear, tires, etc. to no end and is akin to ice skating without the skates. I like mud races and pity the poor mechanics who have to deal with it. No mention of Bayle, the freakin' mud master that "asterisked" his way to the 250 MX championship at Hangtowns' washout in '91?
matthesisthe350s*****, I seem to remember Milsapps not being able to put together a solid, consistent season on a factory Honda either. It is his lack of focus that holds him back, not his team or manager. Justin Brayton is proof of that. He is constantly improving under the same management that you claim is "the worst" in the sport. Besides, everyone knows Larry Brooks is the worst manager in the sport...:)
Carlsbad, you are right about that southern mud. Went on a Jeep trip to North Caralina a few times. the first trip I kinda washed off the orange mud and left some on the top. When I got home and tried to wash it. the top was permantely stained were I left the mud on. It never completely went away. And the mud is like ice in some places where its solid under an inch or so of mud. Like nowhere else thats for sure.
I am thinking a K-Dub podium, I am sure we are all hoping for this!