by Aaron Hansel
Bench Racing Ammo: Opening Night Victory
Wednesday, January 9, 2013 | 11:40 AM
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PrintWe’ve all heard the saying, “You can’t win the championship at the first race, but you can lose it.” But in a seventeen-race series, is this true? If you’re Ryan Villopoto, who finished in an extremely uncharacteristic sixteenth place at the opener, you’re certainly hoping not. To get a better idea of how a rider’s performance at A1 affects his championship picture, we put together a list of A1 race winners and held it up to a list of the same years’ corresponding champions. We went back to 1999 because that’s when Angel Stadium in Anaheim returned to host the opening round after a few years with the L.A. Coliseum hosting the opener. After looking at the list below, remember to add your own observations in the comments section.
1999
A1 Winner: Ezra Lusk - Finished second in the series
Champ: Jeremy McGrath - Finished seventh at A1
Margin of Victory: 83 points
2000
A1 Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Champ: Jeremy McGrath
Margin of Victory: 35 points
After winning the opener in 2000, McGrath went on to claim the championship.
Racer X Archives photo
2001
A1 Winner: Jeremy McGrath - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished third at A1
Margin of Victory: 64 points
2002
A1 Winner: David Vuillemin - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished twentieth at A1 (DNF)
Margin of Victory: 35 points
2003
A1 Winner: Chad Reed - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished second at A1
Margin of Victory: 7 points
2004
A1 Winner: Chad Reed
Champ: Chad Reed
Margin of Victory: 9 points
2005
A1 Winner: Kevin Windham - Finished third in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished third at A1
Margin of Victory: 25 points
2006
A1 Winner: James Stewart - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished third at A1
Margin of Victory: 2 points
In 2007, James Stewart claimed the opening round win. He later went on to win the title.
Simon Cudby photo
2007
A1 Winner: James Stewart
Champ: James Stewart
Margin of Victory: 51 points
2008
A1 Winner: Chad Reed
Champ: Chad Reed
Margin of Victory: 13 points
2009
A1 Winner: Josh Grant - Finished fourth in the series
Champ: James Stewart - Finished nineteenth at A1 (DNF)
Margin of Victory: 4 points
2010
A1 Winner: James Stewart - Finished twentieth in the series (injury)
Champ: Ryan Dungey - Finished second at A1
Margin of Victory: 70 points
2011
A1 Winner: Ryan Villopoto
Champ: Ryan Villopoto
Margin of Victory: 4 points
2012
A1 Winner: Ryan Villopoto
Champ: Ryan Villopoto
Margin of Victory: 57 points
By looking at these stats, we can conclude that yes, the championship can indeed be lost at the opener, but a bad night at A1 doesn’t necessarily guarantee a points deficit at the end of the year. For example, Ricky Carmichael DNF’d the opener in 2002, yet went on to win the championship by 35 points. He could have DNF’d the second round and still won! Further proving the point is James Stewart’s DNF at A1 in 2009. After missing a shift and getting together with Chad Reed in the whoops, Stewart was unable to get his bike restarted, starting his championship campaign under way with a massive deficit. But he still won the title by four points.
Villopoto won the season opener a year ago, and although he suffered a torn ACL late in the year, was still able to win the title.
Simon Cudby photo
If Ryan Villopoto, who has won the opener the last two years in a row, can pull of the championship this year, he’ll do it after recording the third-worst opening finish for a champion ever. Bolstering his chances are the fact that the winner of A1 rarely wins the championship. In fact, since 1999, the winner of the opening round has only gone on to win the title six times. A big reason for this is the fact that Ricky Carmichael, who won the championship five times, never once was victorious at the first race of the season. On the flip side, it’s extremely rare for a rider to come back from a poor finish to win the title. In fact, there have only been three instances where the eventual champ didn’t secure a podium finish at the opener (McGrath - seventh in ‘99, Carmichael - twentieth in 2002, James Stewart - nineteenth in 2009).
Here are some additional numbers of interest. David Vuillemin has lost the championship by 35 points twice. Once to McGrath in ’00, and once to Carmichael in ’02.
Villopoto may have won the opener in 2011, but he failed to qualify for the main event in Jacksonville and still won the title by four points over Chad Reed.
Despite only scoring two points in Seattle and missing the final two races of the year with a torn ACL, Villopoto still finished the year with a 57 point lead over second place. Had Villopoto finished in sixteenth at the opener last year, it would not have made a difference.
Take a look at the numbers. What trends and interesting facts do you see?
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was it 02 when RC failed fuel spec and threaten to quit the series after indy?? they fined him but gave his points back
^^^^
Pretty sure he was on the Suzuki when that went down......2005?
would be fun to see how the winners of A1 through those years ended the SX seasons too!
^^^^^
It says beside their names where they finished if they didn't win the championship.
2008, Chad Reed had 25 points taken away and still won the title by 13 points.
make that 2004
and 9 points margin,
damn, I guess I need more coffee
This season the championship fight will be very close and every point counts... I think that there will be five or six riders winning races, so is not very important the first round, less in this season
the lead in fuel really helped two strokes but didn't help four strokes at all is really the biggest reason RC got his points back- they just couldnt say it.
Stewart pulled it off in 2009 and that was tough.......a 16th for RV this year is better than a DNF and I think its more possible for RV to do it in comparison to James in 09... RV can go on a winning streak and gain points pretty quick since the 2nd - 6th place finishes each week this year certainly vary with the depth of the field.....while in 2009 it was pretty much a shoe-in for Reed to get 2nd when James won...
In racing any thing can happen, you just have to put your head down, do the work and put forth your best effort each time out. RV will do just that and when Vegas rolls around, he may find himself in position to win the title, just as RC and JS did in coming back from a bad A1 ..If not, I am sure he will shake the new champs hand and work even harder to take the outdoor title away from Dungey...there is not any quit in Villopoto...no one should count him out at this point..
I remember Erin Bates trying to interview JS7 at A1 after his DNF. He was basically still on the track. I don't think anybody wants to be followed with a damn microphone shoved in their face when they are that pissed.
Gotta agree with you once again BD 25. Anything can happen. I live in Mn. and we have very litttle snow. And warm weather and rain in the forecast. Would sure like to get you on a sled and let you see Spring Creek by trail. It's Mn. and anything can happen, weather wise. Will keep you posted. And, back to the series. Only time will tell, but will it only take a few weeks to play out or, hopefully, the end of the season? I feel very fortunate to be able to watch it unfold!
Being that it was only the first race, a lot still can happen. With so many potential winners and previous champions, it will get interesting. But playing it down to the last race would be cool.
Bucky sounds like a lot of fun...still a drought here, saying we might get a few tenths tonight which won't be enough to help the wheat...or what is left of it as a lot has died out and the geese are taking car of the rest...Looking forward to round 2 it will be interesting to see what surprises arise from Phoenix !! I will be in Dallas to see the Martins start there season..I will give them a shout out from you!!
I don't care who wins, just who races. Winning is a byproduct of great racing, but TC and DM had an unbelievable race at the end. On the excitement scale, this was one of the best openers I can remember. What a specticle - great story lines, excellent interviews, lots of emotion, upsets, drama everywhere. This is a shining example of why 'Merican supercross is so healthy! Well done all!!!
None of those situations is like the current. This year there are so many riders that are capable of winning. There is no room for mistakes or injuries from here on out for JS7 or RV1 if they want to win. It will take perfection!!! Perfect starts, perfect rides, perfect practices etc.......
If they get that stupid air shock right Dungey will win his second title.
Leaded fuel is a tremendous advantage to 4 strokes as well..
Combustion works the same between the two of them.. And lead controls detonation and is a tremendous lubricant.. As well as
No, the lead ban hurt the 2strokes much more. Ask the teams.
rcrddw.......theres been ONE race...geezus...already Dungey has it wrapped up if your once again KTM r&d excuses don't bite him huh..I give him credit that thing looked like the r&d shock was a tad bucky.... how about we wait a few before handing him the check...theres 5 other guys at least that don't agree and I looks to me like he and Bam are going to become great pals.......
Hey since you guys are talking about fuel what about 100low lead
Av-gas? Will it hurt a four stroke?
The "teams" said that because they wanted points back.
100ll is a good fuel but has a different schoimetric weight. It contains no ethanol, and will richen a carbureted bike. Since they are lean to begin with you fine. It is a slower burning fuel, so you will lose performance unless you raise compression. Mix it 20% with 80% pump gas to control detonation.. i go to the airport and run it in my 550hp 427 camaro all the time because its so cheap.
I know my friend in texas said his new kawi detonates in the heat during long motos, so he mixes a dash of100ll into his tank. It doesnt take much, he is a former pro circuit rider.
We have experiment with all these fuels over the y ears.
We experimented withv
Stoimetric. I hate android, my cursor jumps all over
Stoichiometric weightof 100ll is 14.9:1 going off memory fron 10 years ago.. pump gas non oxygenated is 14.7 and oxyfuels 14.2. Dont quote me on these..
I did talk with mr.lechein and ronnie and i both played with methanol and nitro methane in our two strokes. Couldnt drill the jet big enough or control detonation but they made about 60hp. People within 20 feet have watering eyes, and burning nose. It burns at like 6:1!