by Aaron Hansel
Bench Racing Ammo: Leaving Cali
Wednesday, February 13, 2013 | 10:40 AM
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Rockstar Energy Racing’s Davi Millsaps leads the 450SX field by an impressive nineteen points as Monster Energy Supercross departs California. Lets take a look back at the past ten years to see how big of a gap the points leader typically has after six rounds out west. Is Millsaps’ gap huge compared to history? And does the points leader after round six usually go on to win the title? Dig in and find out.
2003
Points Leader after six rounds: Ricky Carmichael, by 4 over Chad Reed
Eventual Champ: Ricky Carmichael
2004
Points Leader after six rounds: Reed, by 30 over David Vuillemin
Eventual Champ: Reed
Reed held a 30 point lead after six rounds in 2004.
Simon Cudby photo
2005
Points Leader after six rounds: Carmichael, by 32 over Reed
Eventual Champ: Carmichael
2006
Points Leader after six rounds: Carmichael, by 11 over James Stewart
Eventual Champ: Carmichael
2007
Points Leader after six rounds: Stewart, by 21 over Reed
Eventual Champ: Stewart
RC went on to win the championship in 2006 after holding an 11 point lead over James Stewart after six rounds.
Simon Cudby photo
2008
Points Leader after six rounds: Reed, by 35 over Kevin Windham
Eventual Champ: Reed
2009
Points Leader after six rounds: Reed, by 3 points over Stewart
Eventual Champ: Stewart
2010
Points Leader after six rounds: Ryan Dungey and Josh Hill tied for first, 3 points ahead of Ryan Villopoto
Eventual Champ: Dungey
James Stewart is the only rider in the last ten years to win a title after trailing in points after six rounds.
Simon Cudby photo
2011
Points Leader after six rounds: Villopoto, by 9 over Stewart
Eventual Champ: Villopoto
2012
Points Leader after six rounds: Villopoto, by 6 over Reed
Eventual Champ: Villopoto
History is in Millsaps' favor as the series heads east.
Simon Cudby photo
As you can see, the numbers are highly in favor of a Millsaps championship in 2013. In fact, in the last ten years, there has only been one instance of the points leader after six rounds not winning the championship. That occurred in 2009 when Reed was leading Stewart by 3 going into round seven.
Although the trend is favorable to Millsaps, the 2010 season shows us just how unpredictable racing can be. Dungey and Hill were tied for first after six rounds, but Dungey would go on to clinch the title early in Seattle and eventually win the championship by 70 points over Windham. Hill, on the other hand, battled injuries to eventually end up placing sixth in the series, 130 points back of Dungey. Injuries ended Villopoto’s title chances that year, as well.
What’s your take on the data above? Should we forego the rest of the season and hand the title to Millsaps and the Rockstar Energy Racing team, or is Millsaps’ impressive 19-point lead meaningless? Tell us what you think in the comments section below.
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WOW!!--The numbers are on Millsaps side, and he has confidence,and a great attitude.. After all the trials he has had happen in his life, this should be pretty easy..LOL!! but seriously, I think he is very mentally tough, so the pressure might not get him, just hope he doesnt have a mechanical cost him the title.. If he gets beat then fine, but not a mechanical, that would suck..
I think he's got a great shot at the title barring crashes/injuries, and I really hope that doesn't happen (to him or anyone else in the series). It's fun to watch every week, though, and MX will be awesome too (better, in my old-school opinion).
The only problem I see with these stats ate they don't take into account the parity of top level racers in the field today. Way more guys this year than in previous years that can get in the mix any given weekend and steal points.
Of course the flip side of my argument could mean that this lead Millsaps has is safe because all of the points that will be spread out through 6 or 7 guys. I say if he keeps on or around the podium and avoids the 'out of the top ten' night it's his.
That's cool with me....he's not my fav in this but I can't help but pull for him now.
No one has yet shown the consistency to match Davi and that's probably what its going to boil down to.
But, we have seen RV get on a roll before and start knocking wins off like crazy, and the previously ever consistent Dungey needs to get back to his old ways. If either of these 2 can get back to their old habits I can see them challenging Davi but that's about it.
But that's why we watch the races! Just look at Tomac, who knows, there is to many races left to count out just about anything!
Pulling for Davi against a healthy pack of racers.
DK
Ripdown is correct, with the depth of talent out on the track, anything could still happen. So it looks to me, that this season, the fans will be the biggest winner!!
I just hope Davi isn't reading this. this is how Jinx's start!
Is Jinx's a word?
Did y'all see JLaw got signed???? I thought I was stoned when I read it, but I wasn't.
The depth of talent has been a game changer. Dominating riders are not doing their thing, and Davi has been the model of consistency that Dungey set out last year in the Nats. Regardless, this points lead has no asterisks whatsoever, and is impressive due to the stallions behind him. Really feels like McGrath with the big number 15 on his Honda...
Actually, Hansel IS from California! But from up north. Maybe the rules are different for NoCal? Or should I say Northern California.
Whew....... Vodoo Daddy didnt pen this.
JimM
Pala374
Why do you think the depth has changed? It's the same every year, and there is always 20 riders on that gate. Your forgetting that Stewart, Reed, Windham, Brayton, etc. these guys aren't rookies or young talent!! They are a few years from retirement. The depth is always the same, yet every year I Hear "this is the deepest field ever!!". It's like a dirt bike, how come every year they print "it's got even more power than ever!" Yet 10 years ago bikes were making 52hp just like today.
Barcia is really the only new talent in the class. Davi MILLSAPS has been in SX class for how many years?
The reality right now is that 10 riders are returning from injury and not 100% or are still injured. MILLSAPS has had great starts, which has helped his position. Nothing else has really changed in the sport in 5 years.
That being said, my gut says James and RV will rock the east coast but I'm quickly losing hope in James. And every week Davi is proving us wrong, so I think if Davi keeps getting starts.. This title is his!! Who ever would have thought that? It certainly won't look good for Yamaha indirectly
Leaving Cali, great. Poor air quaility, high taxes, high crime, high prices, and a BS high profile. As for these stats they have showed a couple of weeks ago, Davi winning the title would be cool. Again, this would be a true Cinderella story. But Davi does have some ugly step sisters that are real fast out there. Only time will tell who the glass boot really fits.
All the guys from the past 10 years were supposed to have points leads, and the field wasn't stacked like now. Been fun watching DM gobble up points, but based on the number of riders that are top 5 threats, it doesn't seem likely that DM is top 5 the next 11 races, the points will tighten up, way too early to call a winner this year though. Great series, just need more passing that doesn't involve lost front ends . . .
@Rick--Millsaps turns 25 on the 15th.. And bikes like those 2 strokes may have been making 50 horses, but in a very narrow section of the rpm band.. the 4-strokes make a ton of power from 8000 to 10000 rpms, which is more usable.. I am not a 4-stroke lover by any means, but when you get a bike 200 more cc's, its hard to compete.. I have had 2-strokes my whole life, and 2 years ago, my sons buddy bought a KTM 450.. I rode it and the power was unreal.. Way more than any 250 2-stroke I have ever owned.. Hate to admit it but its true.. Both my sons have 250 4-strokes, and I can turn faster times on them than my 2-stroke.. Unfortunately they make power where you can use it most, they dont get the wild wheel spin either.. I wont ever give up my 2-strokes, but the 450's make WAAAY more power than the 250 2-strokes ever did.. You can ride them and feel what a dyno cant..
I agree that Stewart is getting better,, So his ACL wasnt as bad as some guys here make it out to be, even Stewart said its healing and he can ride during the week now.. And RV will nail a start or two here soon.. But Millsaps has shown he can run with these guys.. Its going to get real intresting, and lets not count out Reed.. He was recovering too, nobody said he was 100% coming in.. He had a worse injury than some guys out there getting the press for it..
My question is how many title champions was each points leader racing against for a given year. This year seems unprecidented for being "stacked" with so many racing together and thats why I think previous years are not the best indicators of how this year will go down.
I'm a believer in Millsaps and hope he does win but he's a DNF away from loosing the points lead like Tomac. One crash or mechanical could end it. Everyone remember when his bike locked up on the start of a heat race? In the main there is no last chance.
Im a huge JS fan, but to be honest, im stoked with how this season is going. The usual top guys are the underdogs at this point and Davi has the chance to pull it off. I hope he can keep it up!
the numbers are interesting. 3 points was the minimum to win, and 30 was the highest margin. So DM18 is sitting around the median at 19 points.. could go either way
therealmofo, an ACL WILL NOT HEAL, ever.
. I think this thing will tighten up and either RD or RV will be the champ.
Great stats as always to ponder over RX!!...love it.
19 points is a pretty good cushion - If you know your going to be within the top 4 every week. ...but this year, there are so many variables and the points can change alot in one week..Its going to be awesome going down to the wire......RV can go on a win streak gaining points on Dungey and Davi, while Dungey can net a bunch of 2nd place finishes gaining on Davi, but losing to RV...Davi can have good races but finish 3rd- 5th for a few weeks for example and that 19 points is gone if RV is number 1.....Throw Stewart, Reed and JB in there for a couple wins and the math can just get really crazy, like my comment has become...I think like 2011, Stewart will be the in the spoiler role come the last 3-4 rounds...out of the points race, but ready to win races....who knows, it could all change this weekend...Bring on Dallas
rickamatuzio, The depth is better because how many times have there been 4 former Champs on the line or atleast 7 guys who have won an SX race? Let alone both at once?
@rick, interesting observation. As an addendum, don’t you think injuries are a constant? Whether a surgical issue, partially torn ACL, or just going down in a Heat or practice, I think a lot of guys are riding all season in pain to some degree, just like players in the NFL. That crash Dungey took a few weeks back when he was kicked off by a rider out of control was really bad when he flat-landed on concrete. Heck, I think Malcolm Stewart may actually be indestructible. I cannot recall seeing a guy take so many ridiculously hard crashes and come back the next week.
P.S. I agree with @BillC. Last 3 seasons of MX and SX there have been 6 Titles handed out. RV and RD own all 6. Somehow those two guys figure out a way to be the last man standing.
You guys and al your speculation is just that ... Go help on the Carnival cruze where you belong! LOL ... What a bunch of Hipocrats Oh! I mean Democrats !! LOL !
I think Chris Dorner had you in his Manifesto on eradicating SX from the state as well !! LOL
Statistics are fun. I smell a monkey wrench this year.
For now DM is Da Man.
Go Davi !!!!
# 1 it's NORCAL...not nocal
# 2 There is a ton pf racing left...one bad race by DM brings everyone back into title contention. But he has been a great story so far.
Someone has a lot of time on their hands to use my login name and post nonsense. Here's one clue. I stopped using LOL at least 10 years ago.
I smell a Scub_This !
@ MX Bob
Your name is linked to your website....
Ripdown
LOL !
http://instagram.com/p/Vr2tfkBPSG/
Millsaps is for sure a new favorite to me...and he has earned his place.
He proves that even if you are a nice guy ( I really don't know him) you can still be a Bad Ass on the track, especially love that he has not folded when someone passed or attempted to pass him.
Soon RV2 will become the underdog to cheer for....LOL
The more Top Dogs the merrier for us fans
@BILLC--from my understanding, an ACL will heal if its not completely torn...if its completely torn it will not--correct??? And Stewart said his knee would be fine by the middle of the season, so it sounds it just had a tear and wasnt completely torn...
@Ripdown Anybody can change their display name and web site address on their profile. I probably shouldn't say that because no all the other losers who don't have enough self-esteem to represent themselves truthfully will know how to do it.
@Ripdown BUMM !!
I hope Davi keeps it on two wheels & stays healthy...I agree w/ BD25...the fans are definitely the biggest winners so far as far as how unpredictable each race has been so far this season...I LIKE IT!!!
Wow, I must subconsciously like the word "far" LOL
I really like Davi and am glad that he is doing. This has been a strange year with a lot of inconsistent riding by everyone except Davi and Dungey with Dungey just being farther back by a couple of positions than usual.
But reality is reality and the reality is, there are about 4 guys that are faster and better than Davi. He gained 19 to 35 points on them in 6 races and we are to think that at least one of those other riders will not gain that many points on him in 11 races. If everyone stays somewhat healthy there will be at least 2 that will.
I am a js7 fan but I want Davi to win more. I guess that makes me a huge dv18 fan. Seeing his talent and speed through the years, without a mechanical Davi is champ. He can win has won is winning will.....
how could you not pull for DM18 at least a little bit seeing hes on a stock showroom bike bike just like Shorts....lol..(which by the way hasn't changed his results much , hes a good rider..) ..that stuff is hilarious,,,,if their goin to call Shorts bike stock ...which it is not,,then everybody but guys on factory teams have stock bikes to....so it has a stock piston..so what ! it STILL makes more than you could possibly ever need on those slick greased up blocking lapper filled one lined tracks. DM18 and the old simple great handling GOOD START getting championship leading ZOOK are a good combination and hes riding the wheels off it.....if anybody thinks RV will lay down I think your sadly mistaken..its just about his normal grip it and rip it time....he and RD five will bring it down to the wire with 41 (hes still hangin ) and 18.(actually with 11 to go alot of people have a shot still).......YAMAHA wheres the 14's.........hello....anybody home.....
@ Fubar117
How far away are you so I can far that lil far of yours in the back ground ..
19 Points is healthy for sure.
DM18 troubles may start nearer round 12 or 13 if he still has a similar points lead.
When he starts to worry about proctecting the lead.
For me over the next 4 or 5 rounds it will be down to 3 guys with a shot at the title and then the games start.
Because JS7, CR22, RV1, RD5, DM18, TC41, JB51 have the speed to win.
So if four of those guys no longer really have a shot at the title they will only have race wins to go for.
I guy with the quality they have and no pressure is going to be fast.
you could have the title contenders battling for 4th and 5th come the last few rounds.
It is great to be a fan.
I would love RV to win it but he has to finish ahead of millsaps the next three races to start closing the gap otherwise he will need a dnf from millsaps.
RD5 is just going to be there from now on.
Its crazy cause it could go so many ways.
My money is on millsaps but i just have this feeling that something crazy is going to happen.
Depth of field.. Meaning number of riders with ability to win? In 1980s-90s they used to have 10 lead changes by 9 different riders. Usually the champion in the "golden era" only won a few races to win the championship.
Today, riders like Villipoto win half dozen races, which if anything, means there is a LACK of depth in the field.
This season is going pretty well so I won't complain, I like multiple winners. I just hope that the actually racing betters better.
Mofo-
I understand two stroke vs four.
In 1995 a CR250 made 44 HP, in 2007 it made 46hp yet every year it made SO much more power according to magazines.
450 in 2005, 53hp. 2013, 53hp.
@rick--the 2005 "horsepower winner" of the 450's was the Honda 450--with 49 horsepower---the Suzuki put out 48 and the Yamaha put out 47.7 horses..
4 to 5 horsepower on a 230 pound dirtbike is alot..And the KTM put out a max of 57 horsepower this year..
Really, that's interesting because I'm on dirt rider and they have the 05 listed as 53hp and trans world had it 55! What does that tell you?
Mofo, every Honda dyno test I can find shows the CR450 making 55hp in 2005. It made 49 at the rear tire, which includes losses thru drivetrain.
The 450s make the same power today they did 10 years ago, and 250s made the same power for 15 years. They managed to broaden it out and make it user friendly, but without increasing the rpm, HP gains are almost impossible
HP is really only a relationship to time or RPM. A motor that's 20% efficient with X displacement, X fuel, can only make so much power without substantially increasing rpm which they can't do because of part failure.
@ ripdown~~ 2011 was a very highly competitive year with all of the same guys except Barcia. That year there was another JB in the mix, Justin Brayton. Canard won 3 races that year before he got hurt with just about 3 or 4 rounds left if I remember right.
@derf~~ RV is not going to start knocking wins off this year. The field is too tough. I predict nobody will win more than two races in a row. It is hard to do that and for somebody to win 3 in a row in a field stacked like this is almost impossible.
@rickamatuzio~~ Over the previous years (barring 2011) the field was not stacked like this mostly because of injuries early on. But this year we have 7 guys with the potential to win races in the same class. And all 7 are still in the mix.
@pitbull and maico25~~ Don't count Milsaps out. I am a huge RD fan and would love to see him win it but 19 points is hard to make up unless DM has a DNF (which could happen) but I don't think will happen. Davi is smart and will ride smart. He will not lose this title by crashing (unless somebody takes him out).
In any championship series points don't usually start to tighten up until about round 8 or 9. If they don't by then then the leader pretty much runs away with it. If Milsaps is 20 points or more in front by the end of round 9 I say this will be his title.
Talk about a stacked class. In my opinion there has not been a class stacked this deep since the 70s. Look at this roster: Weinert, Tony D, Stackable, Smith, Hannah, Sun, Pomeroy, Croft, Howerton, Semics, LaPorte. I took these names from a results list of a race in 1977. The order is not the finishing order but my point is this year is comparable. I remember going to those races hoping my favorite rider would win but not really knowing who would because they all could and they all did at one point. BTW, I could have thrown Rick Burgett's name in that list along with Barnett's and Gaylon Mosier as they were on that roster too. And this was before Lackey came back to the states to race. A final note, in case you are curious Tony D won that day, then Stackable, and Pomeroy. Hannah got a 7th, Smith got a 15th.